Low turnout probably helps Labour against Reform, but likely benefits Plaid. Agree that Labour would rather that scenario, in terms of where they are vulnerable to Plaid and Reform respectively, though.
Welsh Labour’s actual best hope would be if UK Labour devolved the Crown estate, which would be in Starmer's interest if his main priority was actually holding off Reform, as opposed to using them as an excuse to keep tracking further to the right.
While low turnout has historically advantaged Labour in Senedd elections, it's very much been to their long-term disadvantage not to try and change that. If they'd put more effort into driving up participation and promoting devolution in Wales, then we wouldn't be such low-hanging fruit for Reform to pick off. I still honestly think it would be to their advantage to try and drive up participation in the next election as much as possible. Take Reform on, by going out and selling the Senedd and the benefits it has brought. If nothing else, it would be better to lose that way than with the usual apologetic timidity.
I don't see Labour winning the next election, but I can't see Plaid winning it either. The gender based zipping policy means that many candidates who would otherwise have credible chances of winning are likely to be pushed so far down the list that it's unlikely they will be elected. For instance, it's highly unlikely that both Cefin Campbell and Adam Price will be in the next Senedd.
This, of course, leaves an open door for Reform, who would be a disaster for Welsh devolution. Very poor strategy from Plaid. Diversity for the sake of diversity- nice fluffy sentiment but it won't translate into winning power, or saving Wales from Farage's goon squad.
Will Hayward May 4: "I would be absolutely stunned if the First Minister didn’t start actively trying to differentiate herself from Keir Starmer’s UK government very soon."
Headline in The Guardian May 6: "Welsh Labour first minister says she is ‘losing patience’ with Starmer’s policies."
Low turnout probably helps Labour against Reform, but likely benefits Plaid. Agree that Labour would rather that scenario, in terms of where they are vulnerable to Plaid and Reform respectively, though.
Welsh Labour’s actual best hope would be if UK Labour devolved the Crown estate, which would be in Starmer's interest if his main priority was actually holding off Reform, as opposed to using them as an excuse to keep tracking further to the right.
While low turnout has historically advantaged Labour in Senedd elections, it's very much been to their long-term disadvantage not to try and change that. If they'd put more effort into driving up participation and promoting devolution in Wales, then we wouldn't be such low-hanging fruit for Reform to pick off. I still honestly think it would be to their advantage to try and drive up participation in the next election as much as possible. Take Reform on, by going out and selling the Senedd and the benefits it has brought. If nothing else, it would be better to lose that way than with the usual apologetic timidity.
The data from this week’s elections seems to indicate people who haven’t voted previously are now turning out.
I don't see Labour winning the next election, but I can't see Plaid winning it either. The gender based zipping policy means that many candidates who would otherwise have credible chances of winning are likely to be pushed so far down the list that it's unlikely they will be elected. For instance, it's highly unlikely that both Cefin Campbell and Adam Price will be in the next Senedd.
This, of course, leaves an open door for Reform, who would be a disaster for Welsh devolution. Very poor strategy from Plaid. Diversity for the sake of diversity- nice fluffy sentiment but it won't translate into winning power, or saving Wales from Farage's goon squad.
Will Hayward May 4: "I would be absolutely stunned if the First Minister didn’t start actively trying to differentiate herself from Keir Starmer’s UK government very soon."
Headline in The Guardian May 6: "Welsh Labour first minister says she is ‘losing patience’ with Starmer’s policies."
‘Wales is a resource to be tapped rather than a nation to be nurtured.’
Searching for something else I found Adam Price’s speech from 10 years ago. Still relevant. Preamble in Welsh before switching to English.
https://youtu.be/FYPZ-BOUBMk?si=sllDN8p9oTmr8DFQ
Will, pleased use poor language. It is unnecessary as a journalist. (I have aphasia so I have hard language.)
Sian