The battle for Wales begins
One year till the Welsh elections
In one year and two days the people of Wales will be going to the polls to vote in the 2026 Senedd election.
As I write this, the scale of Labour’s trouncing by Reform in the local elections is becoming apparent. Make no mistake, if Labour do nothing meaningful for Wales in the next 12 months, they will be in third place.
The upcoming election will shape Wales in a way no other Senedd election has. We have a Reform Party which has admitted they see our parliament as merely a vehicle to gain money, staff and momentum to drive gains in Westminster. To them, like so many before, Wales is a resource to be tapped rather than a nation to be nurtured.
We also have a resurgent Plaid Cymru. A nationalist party whose ultimate goal is Welsh independence. Many in Wales underestimate what it would mean for them to have their first ever First Minister. We saw from the SNP in Scotland in 2007, once a nationalist Government gets in, they can drive the agenda incredibly powerfully.
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Where is the hope? Where is the change?
The above picture is from the Welsh Labour manifesto ahead of last year's General Election. It was literally headlined “change”.
This image perfectly encapsulates what a mess Labour are in.
Of course there is Vaughan Gething. A First Minister whose disastrous premiership splintered a party already running out of gas.
But he isn’t the root of the current problems. It is that word - “change”. The people of Wales had endured 15 years of cuts and condescension from those in Westminster. They were desperate for change.
They were also desperate for hope. And if we look at the first chapter of the manifesto, what does Keir Starmer put as his first title?
On the back of this promise for hope and change Wales gifted Labour 27 of our 32 MPs. Yet we are now 10 months in and we very little seem to have changed and on the back of that the hope is fast evaporating.
Eluned Morgan said it best, if somewhat accidentally, just last week in First Minister’s Questions.
When answering questions about the perceived lack of support for Port Talbot she told the Senedd:
“I have been making representations to the Conservative Government to make sure that they understand that—the Labour Government—to make sure they understand that there is an opportunity for them here to stand with the Welsh workforce and to make sure that we get a significant share of the green steel fund.”
Mistaking the Keir Starmer’s Government for a Conservative one sums up better than anything the challenge Labour have.
Of course it was just a slip of the tongue. They happen all the time and you can’t blame someone for that in my view. But can you really argue that, in any significant way, Wales is in a different position now compared with this time last year?
Now don’t get me wrong, the UK Labour Government is different from the Tory one that went before. Wales has had an increase in cash and relations are less hostile between London and Cardiff Bay. But they are different from the Conservatives in the same way that a blue Vauxhall Corsa is different from a red Fiat Punto.
You can’t sell yourself on the basis of change and then tinker round the edges. You can’t reheat last night's leftovers and tell people you have cooked them a new meal.
If you want to know what a reheated spag bol delivered in a Fiat Punto looks like, take a look at the table below which shows the areas of England and Wales which will be most impacted by the changes to disability benefits.
Yep Wales is 5% the size of England but makes up 40% of the areas hit hardest by Labour’s changes.
Will the terrible results for Labour last week be the Ghost of Christmas Future for Keir Starmer ahead of the Senedd elections? Will it wake him up to what his party is facing in a year? This is unlikely. If you want to know why I believe that I will direct you back to the cuts to disability benefits. No analysis was conducted at all into the impact this will have on Wales. To Keir Starmer, Cymru is just a part of Britain, not a thing in and of itself.
Expect a big change in tone from Eluned Morgan
I would be absolutely stunned if the First Minister didn’t start actively trying to differentiate herself from Keir Starmer’s UK government very soon. I said two months ago how she needed to pick a constitutional fight. The need to create clear red water is now a matter of electoral survival.
One problem is that the time to create this distinction was last July when Labour were elected. Keir Starmer made it abundantly clear before the election that there would be no further devolution and no proper HS2 consequential. It can’t have surprised Welsh Labour that their comrades in London have fallen well short.
Welsh Labour have been good soldiers for nearly a year, drinking the “partnership in power” Kool-Aid. They are now swiftly discovering that, much like the Lib Dems a decade ago, being the junior partner often leads to the good soldier being the electorally dead soldier.
Can Labour turn it around?
There is a way that Welsh Labour can avoid the cliff edge they are gradually chugging towards on an unelectrified and stuttering Cross Country train. But it will require a united, energetic and driven Welsh party utilising both their local links and digital presence to powerfully communicate a truly transformative vision for Wales.
But right now we have a divided and exhausted party in which getting on for a third of their existing MSs are stepping down and checking out.
Currently it is a party of contradictions.
At a time it needs a bullet-proof level of self assurance, Welsh Labour is instead somehow managing to project the seemingly contradictory aura of both arrogance and a lack of confidence.
At a time when they need unity, they have managed to get their own party in Westminster and yet look more divided than ever. The wounds caused by Vaughan Gething’s idiotic acceptance of £200k from a businessman convicted of environmental offences are going septic rather than healing.
They have somehow managed to make their leader, who is as likeable, disliked (when she is recognised at all).
It’s going to be a crazy 12 months
Perhaps I am wrong. History has shown that Welsh Labour have immense levels of durability in Wales. People in Wales are not stupid. They have voted Labour for a century because they clearly liked what Labour is selling. Electoral muscle memory does count for something and the party has easily the strongest machinery of any of the Welsh parties. However we know that often when dynasties fall, they fall hard.
At this point I genuinely believe that Welsh Labour’s best hope is a low turnout. Those voters who generally gravitate to Reform have tended to not vote, at least in Senedd elections. There is a certain irony that Welsh Labour, who have been desperate to increase the awareness of devolution among the Welsh public, are likely praying that many people stay at home on May 7, 2026.
Whatever happens I am going to keep covering it through this newsletter. I will keep asking questions, digging and pissing off those in power (and those seeking power). I can only do this because of you. The fact you pay to support my journalism is very humbling and I am so grateful.
That’s all for this week. I appreciate that this newsletter has been a bit different. Next time we will be back to the usual format with some detailed analysis of a whole range of issues.
Diolch
Will
Low turnout probably helps Labour against Reform, but likely benefits Plaid. Agree that Labour would rather that scenario, in terms of where they are vulnerable to Plaid and Reform respectively, though.
Welsh Labour’s actual best hope would be if UK Labour devolved the Crown estate, which would be in Starmer's interest if his main priority was actually holding off Reform, as opposed to using them as an excuse to keep tracking further to the right.
While low turnout has historically advantaged Labour in Senedd elections, it's very much been to their long-term disadvantage not to try and change that. If they'd put more effort into driving up participation and promoting devolution in Wales, then we wouldn't be such low-hanging fruit for Reform to pick off. I still honestly think it would be to their advantage to try and drive up participation in the next election as much as possible. Take Reform on, by going out and selling the Senedd and the benefits it has brought. If nothing else, it would be better to lose that way than with the usual apologetic timidity.