'Normal countries don't do that' - The Rhun ap Iorwerth interview
Plus the Welsh Government announces its spending plans
Hello!
I hope you all had a good week and welcome to the big influx of people who joined over the last few fortnight.
This week I sat down with Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth following polling which put Plaid ahead of both Welsh Labour and Reform. For more context on this poll you can see my previous week's newsletter.
The interview with Plaid Cymru’s leader was wide ranging and I think there are some interesting insights that we can glean from his response. I will then look at the Welsh Government’s draft budget.
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Fancy earning more than Keir Starmer?
The applications just closed in the hunt for a new CEO for Caerphilly Council which will net the successful candidate a tidy £160,000 a year.
I wouldn’t normally cover this in a newsletter but I think it is worth noting because it allows us to talk about how this council has been a black hole for taxpayers' money.
Back in October the council agreed a £209,000 settlement to pay off its then chief executive who had been absent for nearly a year. Christina Harrhy, who was appointed in 2018 and had a salary of £148,773 in 2022-23, hadn’t worked at the authority since November 2023.
The settlement was made up of 10 months' salary (costing taxpayers £146,000), payment in lieu of notice (£43,800) and accrued annual leave of (£19,200). Council officials defended the settlement saying that it was cheaper than a further investigation and facing a tribunal.
The council hasn't had a great run with CEOs. A previous one, Anthony O'Sullivan, was suspended by Caerphilly council in 2013 amid allegations relating to pay rises given to him and two senior officers. Criminal charges were dropped in 2015 and the two other men agreed payouts worth £300,000 between them from the council.
Incredibly Mr O’Sullivan wasn’t dismissed until six years after his initial suspension in 2019 (he was suspended throughout this time). In 2021 he won a £97,500 payout with the council also paying £11k plus VAT for legal costs.
All in all Mr O'Sullivan was given £137k-a-year for six years to stay at home. It cost over £4m in taxpayers money.
Let’s hope the next appointment is more successful.
Darren Millar - a good parliamentarian and pro devolution?
Last week we talked about the new Welsh Tory leader Darren Millar as well as his second job.
What has struck me since then in conversations I have had both with Tories as well as Plaid and Labour figures, is the contrast between him and Andrew RT Davies.
There is a genuinely held respect among MSs for how Mr Millar conducts himself in his role as a member. He is perceived as very diligent in committee work and seems to be invested in making the Senedd work well and providing proper scrutiny.
The early signs are that the Welsh Tories will have, at least for a bit, ended their flirtation with being anti devolution. Given that, at least publicly, Reform are not running on an anti-devo ticket, it could only be Abolish the Assembly running on an overtly anti Senedd platform.
The Rhun ap Iorwerth interview
The first thing you notice when you speak to the Plaid leader, is that he is deeply frustrated that the wider UK media is seeing the recent polling in Wales through a purely Reform lens. It illustrates the uphill battle his party has in getting traction over the next 18 months.
As with the Eluned Morgan interview, I will be putting my questions and Rhun ap Iorwerth’s response followed by a breakdown of what we can interpret from these answers.
Will Hayward: What sort of position do you think Welsh politics is in at the end of 2024?
Rhun ap Iorwerth:
It feels as if we're in a time of change in Welsh politics, and it's a time that we have been needing to happen. I think politics works well when you have the ebbs and flows of new ideas and parties learning lessons and regrouping and having a freshness. And I genuinely feel that there's an opportunity here to bring in a fresh kind of politics in Wales, obviously, with Plaid Cymru leading that government from 2026.
After 25 years of devolution with Labour in the hot seat, one of the biggest enemies, I think, of change, is people not believing that change is possible. I get the feeling that people are starting to think Labour’s eternal rule is not inevitable and I think that's a really positive place for us to be. It is really challenging for us, because now, with people clearly starting to believe in our vision, we have to step up and show that we are able to turn that vision into reality.
The first thing to say is that of course the leader of Plaid would want to give the impression that Wales is falling out of love with Labour and that change is inevitable. But I think it is absolutely the case that there is a feeling within Cymru that Labour’s endless dominance is at an end.
However there are a few things to consider. The first is that doesn’t mean that only one party is going to replace them. The more proportional system will allow the polarisation of Welsh politics to be represented within our Senedd. There are four parties that are likely to command around 90% of the vote and seats with a fairly even distribution between the four (at least at present).
Though there are four parties dominating there are likely to be only two poles of political gravity - the more progressive left containing Plaid/Labour, and the populist right with Cons/Reform. Unless Darren Millar makes his party far more palatable with the parties outside Reform, the lines for any coalition are fairly set in stone.
This led me to my next question…
WH: You say that people are seeing that Labour in power is not inevitable. However even if the numbers within the polls go up or down 5%, it's hard to see Plaid in power without Labour also having some kind of role in Government. Unless of course you were willing to work with Reform or the Tories, and you've given the impression that's not something you're inclined to do in the past.
I think you're right. We're moving from a situation where we had an electoral system that, while never giving one party a majority, it has allowed Labor to have almost or exactly half. This empowered them to govern alone for most of the time, seeking the odd deal here or there.
But now we are moving to a situation where parties will have to find ways of working together. It doesn't have to mean coalitions, but it will mean cooperation. But I make this point, who is in that First Minister role? This is very, very important, who is able to speak up as the head of Welsh Government, as the head of Wales.
This is really, really important in terms of setting the tone. And that's the change. We've never been in a position where Plaid has been projected to be the largest party in the Senedd. That means being in the prime position to be First Minister. That changes Welsh politics forever.
OK a few points here.
Firstly, he is being clear there is no way that Plaid will ever do a deal with Reform. This matches with previous statements he has said.
Secondly, the crown jewel for Plaid is getting their leader to be the First Minister. We saw with both Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland the immense profile that being the leader of a nation gives you.
A Plaid FM would be able to position themselves as “standing up for Wales” in a way a Welsh Labour leader never can when there is a Labour government in Westminster. It is hard to overstate how big it would be for Plaid if they were able to do this.
Under Rhun ap Iorwerth’s leadership the party have been far keener than under Adam Price to distance themselves from Labour. I remember Adam Price’s final conference speech as leader where he said that Plaid would set the direction for Labour to shape Wales. This idea of Plaid being the policy engine for a Labour government has been a contributing (though far from only) factor in Plaid never challenging Labour dominance the way the SNP did in Scotland.
You can see a good example of this comes around their stance to helping Welsh Labour pass the budget. Labour are one short of a majority so need support from another party to pass it.
When he announced his budget last week Mark Drakeford addressed the Plaid benches saying he remains open to talks with Plaid Cymru about how the budget can be improved, but added:
“If that’s not the business you are in then, believe me, the people of Wales will see through you and the political games you think you can play with their future.
“There’s £253m for local government and when you vote against the budget, you will be saying to those local authorities that you don’t want them to have a single penny of it.
“That’s what serious politics is about … and that day of reckoning is coming your way.”
Mr ap Iorwerth told me:
Do I think political parties need to be mature and be open to sort of working with each other? Absolutely yes.
However, after the announcement of the budget yesterday when Mark Drakeford…I was going to call him the First Minister… I think he's still in charge… but he's now the finance cabinet secretary, he said that it was Plaid Cymru's day of reckoning regarding whether we would support the budget or not.
There is an assumption that Plaid Cymru will come to the table. That's not how politics works. It's not just up to Plaid Cymru or anybody else to go up to the fifth floor to the Welsh Government and say “hi, we're ready to do a deal”. It's up to the government.
Back in October Plaid Cymru made several "demands" of Labour ahead of the budget.
They said they wanted:
HS2 to be re-classified as an England-only project (and the £4 billion Wales is owed).
Replacing the Barnett Formula with a needs-based formula (they argue that as Wales is poorer it should get more than a population share).
Devolution of the Crown Estate to Wales (Scotland has this).
End the two-child benefit cap.
Restoration of the Winter Fuel Payment.
None of these conditions have been met by UK Labour (and were never going to be). Plaid knew this and were deliberately positioning themselves to be able to go to the electorate and say: “We have not backed the budget because Labour are shortchanging Wales”.
It is a savvy bit of electoral posturing that makes it hard for Welsh Labour to argue come 2026 that they are best placed to lobby for Wales’ interests in Westminster.
What has devolution done for Wales?
Given I asked Eluned Morgan this question I thought it was worth asking the Plaid leader…
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