The Welsh Conservative's big mistake

Plus the latest seat projections for the Senedd

Hello,

Nothing sums up how little political journalists outside of Wales know about Welsh politics than their responses to political events here in Cymru.

The Welsh Tories have a new leader and you could almost feel the Wikipedia pages of both Andrew RT Davies (the ousted leader) and Darren Millar (the new leader) being pored over as journos tried to work out who they were.

To be fair, some didn’t even pretend regarding how little they cared about Welsh politics. This was an update by Politico in their (usually excellent) London Playbook section:

Welsh politics really is treated as a joke. I can’t see someone saying this about NI or Scotland.

In this issue we will cover the fall of Mr Davies and why the Tories have made a big mistake as well as mapping out a seat projection for the 2026 Senedd election based on the latest polling.

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Dementia targets in Wales - Something the Welsh Government would like us to forget

When I started this newsletter I was very determined it would never become simply “Politician said X or Y”. Inevitably, when party leaders step down, I have to talk about it. However I never really want to stray too far from how the actions of politicians impact the lives of the people they govern.

That is why I want to start this newsletter by briefly talking about dementia diagnosis rates in Wales. Let me give you an overview:

• Wales has the lowest published rate of dementia diagnosis anywhere in the UK at just 56%.

• This means 44% of people with dementia in Wales have the treatment, support or care that comes with a diagnosis.

• It also varies between different areas of Wales. The rural county of Powys has the lowest rate at just 46.9%.

Now this is a problem for human, societal and financial reasons.

One in six hospital beds has someone with dementia in it.

People with undiagnosed dementia are more likely to go to A&E and outpatient services than those where it is diagnosed.

Dementia care costs £2.3bn to the Welsh economy and, without action, within 15 years, that will become £4.6bn.

Catching this early is better for the taxpayer, the person and their family. Treatments like acetylcholinesterase (dear lord never make me say that out loud), following early diagnosis, could save £45,000 per person.

So how is Wales performing?

Not great. Don’t get me wrong, nowhere in the UK is performing well on this but Wales’ diagnosis rates are the lowest.

In the last Dementia Action Plan in 2018, the diagnosis rate was 53%, and the Welsh Government committed to increase the diagnosis rate by 3% each year. The diagnosis rate has increased 3% over six years (so the WG is five years behind where it should be).

Last week the Welsh Gov made a commitment to make dementia a priority following a motion tabled by Plaid Cymru (which passed with cross-party support, after a lively debate).

The move was praised by charities like the Alzheimer’s Society but while we have seen that the Welsh Gov is amazing at making bold statements, they are less effective at following them through.

Want to hear more about Welsh politics? You can watch my podcast here:

Bye, bye Andrew RT Davies

So the Conservative Senedd Members have finally followed through on the desire which has occupied their hearts for the last two years and ousted Andrew RT Davies as leader.

Andrew RT Davies in the centre alongside his replacement Darren Millar (right)

I considered writing a comprehensive write up of Mr Davies’ utterly abysmal performance as Conservative leader. I wondered whether it was worth breaking down how his unrelenting desire to be a Nigel Farage tribute act, suckling at the populist teat like one of the calves on his farm, lowered the standard of the debate in Wales into the gutter. I mused on whether I could be bothered to examine how, when the Welsh Government had such a long list of failings, he completely failed to offer any viable alternative or vision for Wales.

However, in my opinion, the man's failings as leader speak for themselves. So I will therefore just post five of his tweets that I feel sum up how he neglected to be the serious politician that both his party, and Cymru, needed. As you read these keep in mind that he was the bloody leader of the opposition, he was supposed to be portraying himself as a First Minister in waiting:

“Building roads protects the environment”... come on.

Where do you even begin?

It is hard to know what point he is making here as it was only been a year since the ban came in.

Is that because people are no longer able to take their frustrations out by smacking their kids they are resorting to antisocial behaviour? Or is he saying that in the mere 12 months since the ban, that toddlers' behaviour has descended to such a degree that they are now running rampant on the streets?

When there was an important issue, he seemed to revel in trivialising it.

This is where he compared Keir Starmer supporting EU membership as the same as people who stormed the US Capitol and assaulted 140 police officers.

Classic Trumpian politics. Divide, divide, divide. Power is its own reward (except he proved absolutely atrocious at winning power).

The Welsh Tories big mistake

Now let me be clear. Getting rid of Andrew RT Davies was not a mistake. From the point of view of the party it was 20 months too late, but it wasn’t a mistake. The biggest error that the party has made is that they haven’t had a leadership contest.

More than anything, the Welsh Conservatives need to work out who they are and what they stand for. There is a deep divide within the party over how to counter Reform. Some believe that to beat Reform you must essentially become Reform light. I have discussed in previous newsletters how stupid this is. Others believe that the party must take a more moderate tone and position themselves on the centre right.

However they have just elected Darren Millar without a contest. No debate, no conversation, no sharing of ideas.

So what is Darren Millar’s plan? I believe his opening statement is very illuminating:

“Andrew RT Davies will be a difficult act to follow but I am determined to build on his legacy as we take the fight to our political opponents in the run-up to the Senedd elections in 2026.”

Oh for crying out loud. Of course, every new leader pays tribute to the old leader but what “legacy” is there? The problem for the party wasn’t just Andrew RT Davies’ himself, it was the direction in which he took his party. Building on failure just compounds failure.

Removing Andrew RT Davies was, in my view, a positive thing for Welsh politics. While being deliberately divisive and sowing division is bad, making your party utterly unelectable and therefore giving a struggling Welsh Labour an easy ride is even worse. More than anything, the Welsh Conservatives needed to use this moment to totally refocus, rebrand and rebuild. Instead they have opted for the easy option of just not having a row with each other for a bit.

The problem that Tory MSs face is that their membership is significantly further to the right than they are (and far further than the electorate). Therefore to win a leadership contest, they have to set out a stall so far on the right of politics, it will make it nigh on impossible for them to win in a Senedd election if they become leader.

I was speaking to a well placed Tory source last week who said:

“The problem with Andrew and previous leaders is that none of them were willing to try and convince the membership that, in order to win, we needed to be more moderate. Instead they just repeated what the membership wanted to hear. Thereby making themselves unelectable.”

Clearly my criticism of Mr Davies is just my opinion. There are plenty within the party who feel he was doing a bang up job. But I just can’t find anything to point to from his leadership and say that is what a success.

This brings us to their new leader…

Darren Miller - the busiest man in Welsh politics?

Many of you won’t have heard of Darren Millar but he has occupied lots of roles within the party. Before becoming leader he was chief whip and has been the MS for Clwyd South since 2007.

Those of you who have followed me a while will have seen my previous reporting regarding his second job. As well as being an MS, Mr Millar also works as the chief executive of the Pocket Testament League.

The Pocket Testament League is an evangelical Christian organisation that exists to convert people to their particular religion. Their website reads: "Only 6% of UK adults consider themselves practicing Christians. Together we’re on a mission to change this statistic, one person at a time."

Mr Millar is clearly not a hands-off chief exec as in 2022 he flew to Ukraine to distribute 150k bibles. Here are some passages from his blog on it:

While I am sure that Ukrainians, whose infrastructure had been repeatedly bombed and their loved ones conscripted, were grateful for Mr Millar’s arrival with lots of books, I do question whether it is an appropriate use of his time when he has a full time job here in Wales.

Here are some figures that one can piece together about Mr Millar’s second job:

• He works seven hours a week as chief executive (according to his own declaration of interest).

• He is paid £21k a year for this role (based on Charity Commision accounts).

• This is on top of his £72k a year salary as and MS.

• This £72k is going to soar because, as Leader of the Opposition, he will be getting an extra £14,636 plus £1,126 for each Senedd Member the party has.

• Given they have 16 members this is an extra £18K on top of the £14.6K.

I am not criticising Mr Millar for having religious beliefs. But I personally don’t think it is appropriate for any politician to have a second job. Even as a backbench MS you have an important role representing your constituents, challenging the Welsh Government and working in committees. I am forever hearing MSs tell me how there are too few of them to properly cover all the committee work.

But Mr Millar will not be a backbench MS. He will be the leader of the opposition. He will be being paid exceptionally well to hold the Welsh Government to account. Everyone can see the challenges Wales has and people here cannot afford to carry with such a weak opposition in our parliament.

I did approach Mr Millar for comment, as I have done every time I had covered the story of his second job, he didn’t even acknowledge receipt of the request. This in and of it itself underlines how much of an easy ride politicians get in Wales. Imagine if the leader of the opposition in Westminster failed to even address the fact they had a second job…

Plaid 1st and Reform joint 2nd - A seat by seat breakdown of how the latest polling could look in Wales