A debate Wales can’t afford to lose
Plus how are the Welsh Government going to pass their budget?
Good morning!
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This week we are covering several topics rather than one massive deepdive but first a few words from our sponsor:
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The Welsh NHS waiting list data is pretty grim reading for Labour, but far worse for everyone in Wales
The latest Welsh NHS waiting list data is out and they are now longer than they have ever been, exceeding even the Covid period.
Take a look at these charts:
The list of those waiting over one or two years has been rising month on month through the summer. The overall total is also going up. Welsh Labour have said they are putting in an extra £28m to tackle the longest waits but it will take some time to see if this makes an impact in data.
It is also worth noting that ailments do not stay the same while someone is on a waiting list. They often become more severe and complex meaning that when you eventually do come to treat it, it is a far harder proposition. A stitch in time (literally) saves nine. This is to say nothing to the other issues that come with long term illness like weight issues and mental health deterioration.
If Welsh Labour are no longer the largest party come 2026, it will be the inability to get these lists down which will be the primary reason.
How are the Welsh Government going to pass their budget?
The Welsh Government is facing a real problem. In the coming months they will have to try and get their budget through the Senedd. This is a issue because they only have 30 of the 60 Senedd Members.
They need one more person in the chamber to vote for them for their budget to pass. If the budget does not pass things could get very dicey. This is how most public sector staff in Wales are paid. It could even lead to an early Senedd election.
So how can they get it through? Well there are three avenues they can go down to get support:
The Welsh Liberal Democrats
Plaid Cymru
The Welsh Conservatives
Each one is fraught with difficulty so let’s break it down.
The Welsh Lib Dems
There is only one Lib Dem in the Senedd and that is Jane Dodds. If she was to support the budget it would pass (providing every Labour MS also voted with it).
I went to Ms Dodds and asked her if she intended to support the budget and if she had any demands in order for her to do so? Her office replied with:
After Tuesday's vote on the supplementary budget, which saw all of the opposition parties abstain, it is unclear who Welsh Labour will need to speak to in order to pass their budget for the upcoming financial year.”
Not exactly a ringing endorsement is it?
The Lib Dems have supported Labour before. Their former leader Kirsty Williams was education minister throughout the last parliament and Covid. She received that cabinet position in exchange for her support.
Will Jane Dodds make a similar deal? I highly doubt it. Propping up a government in exchange for 18 months in a job doesn’t sound like great politics. Especially if you are unlikely to be able to point to any meaningful achievements in that time.
But this doesn’t mean that a deal can’t be reached. When I spoke to Jane Dodds in the summer she made it clear she takes voting in the Senedd very seriously and isn’t one for political stunts. She was furious that Welsh Labour called her vote of no confidence in Vaughan Gething a “gimmick”.
She told me at the time:
I was very affected by that. It wasn't an easy decision for me to make. For me it was a big deal to take part in that vote and also I wanted to give him a chance but nothing changed."
When I asked if she would back a future budget under a different leader she said:
Yes. Very clearly this is about what the First Minister has done accepting £200k from a polluter. Actions speak louder than words."
So she is clearly open to a deal in principle, especially given that Vaughan Gething is no longer First Minister. But the Lib Dems desperately need something to put them back on the map in Wales. They have one MS and one MP, which is crazy when you think about the liberal tradition Wales has previously had. If she can get a meaningful concession from the Welsh Government it could be a vital campaigning point heading into 2026.
Plaid Cymru
Plaid are obviously positioning themselves so they can argue that they are fighting for Wales and setting out a negotiating position.
This week I attended a press conference where their MS Heledd Fychan said that they had some "demands" of Labour ahead of the UK Government budget next week.
They demanded:
HS2 to be re-classified as an England-only project (and the £4 billion Wales is owed).
Replacing the Barnett Formula with a needs-based formula (they argue that as Wales is poorer it should get more than a population share).
Devolution of the Crown Estate to Wales (Scotland has had this).
End to the two-child benefit cap.
Restoration of the Winter Fuel Payment.
The party is laying down a framework for what they will want if they are to support Labour getting its budget through the Senedd. Now they are not certain to get any concessions, let alone all of them. But if they were to do so, it would be a major boost for the party. They could argue that it was they who went out to bat for Wales against UK Labour. It would be a very powerful campaign tool.
If the budget couldn’t pass and we ended up with a Senedd election then Plaid can argue that this election happened because they wouldn’t accept Wales being shortchanged, again, a very powerful message.
The Welsh Conservatives
This is by far the least likely option.
Any condition from the Conservatives for their support would likely be intolerable to Labour (getting rid of 20mph limits for example).
Plus the optics of a Labour Government relying on an Andrew RT Davies-led Conservatives to pass their budget is unlikely to be something Labour could stomach.
The reason I mention them is that the Welsh Tory leader himself has previously commented on the issue.
Speaking to the BBC in the summer he said that “it is almost a given that Plaid's position is strengthened in the Senedd because the Tories will never do X, Y or Z” and that his party are “not prepared to be taken for granted”.
What he means by this is that because his party is considered off limits when it comes to coalitions and deals, Plaid Cymru has disproportionately too much power because they are seen as the only ones who Labour can join with. He therefore doesn’t want to be ruled out of future deals (though let’s face it, there isn’t going to be one).
Frankly, I just don’t see any way this doesn’t end with the Lib Dems helping the Welsh Government pass their budget. I believe that Janes Dodds’ red lines will be viewed as much more tolerable than Plaid’s to the Welsh Government.
“This is a debate Wales can’t afford to lose”
Last week we discussed the battle for Wales to get its fair share of HS2 funding.
This week I had a really interesting conversation with Labour MS Mick Antoniw. He was, until recently, part of the Welsh Government cabinet in the role of Counsel General for Wales from 2021 to 2024. He also had responsibility for issues like Senedd expansion and the constitution.
On the issue he said to me:
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