Wales watching - The midweek briefing
Eluned Morgan snubs Trump and a bombshell poll...
Well we certainly have a lot to talk about.
The Senedd is back sitting after the summer break and a new poll by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University has rocked the status quo to the core.
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A bombshell poll
The first thing to say about this poll is that I will not be doing a deep dive into the data here. I am attending a briefing with Dr Jac Larner from Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre later today on the results and therefore want to hold off on full analysis till the Sunday newsletter.
Plus, I will be publishing my interview with Eluned Morgan this weekend (thanks for those who submitted questions). Her answers perfectly contextualise why Labour is in the state it is and I want to combine the two.
So what were the headline figures?
Plaid 30% (no change)
Reform 29% (+4)
Labour 14% (-4)
Conservatives 11% (-2)
Lib Dem 6% (-1)
Green 6% (+1)
Other 4% (+2)
In terms of seats, Mr Larner predicts that the Senedd will look a bit like this if this poll was to play out in May:
Putting aside the fact I am rather pleased with my graph, the key points are these:
Reform has no path to a majority but my gosh it is close.
Plaid are most likely to form the government and their leader Rhun ap Iorwerth will most likely be First Minister under this scenario.
Labour and Plaid together are only one seat over a majority.
The floor and ceiling for Reform are very far apart. The data suggests they could do a lot better than this but also a lot worse. Turnout will be key.
Very little of Reform’s vote is coming from Labour, it is almost all former Tories
The Greens and Plaid are hoovering up Labour voters.
Full analysis and the Eluned Morgan interview this weekend.
Hilariously fitting
If you want the perfect demonstration of how the UK Labour Government sees devolved democracy in Wales look no further than the contact form for 10 Downing Street. There is an online portal where people can submit questions to the office of the Prime Minister. All you have to do is leave your name and email address.
However the software refuses to see Senedd email addresses as real…
Of course I am not suggesting anything deliberate here. It is just a very apt symbol of how the Welsh Parliament is viewed in Westminster.
Perhaps this is why Eluned Morgan has never managed to get a concession for the Prime Minister on, well, anything…
Do you want bespoke training on Welsh politics for your organisation?
Will Hayward regularly provides crash courses and analysis on Welsh politics for boards and senior leadership teams for organisations across Cymru. If you want to enquire about this for your team, email will@willhayward.co.uk
Two years of 20 being plenty
We are now at two years since the 20mph limit was introduced. Collision data is now available for the first 18 months since it came in and there were 882 (or 25%) fewer people hurt in road crashes on roads affected by the change. Once we have the full two years it is expected that there will have been 1,000 fewer casualties.
We have done this to death in recent newsletters so I am not going to rehash all that. However there is one interesting nugget that I haven’t mentioned before.
Casualty reductions are much higher in North Wales than elsewhere in Cymru. This is particularly noteworthy because it is the very place which had the most opposition to the policy.
“20mph is bad except where I happen to live…”
On the anniversary of the 20mph limit introduction the Welsh Tories issued a statement saying:
“The Welsh Conservatives are the only party in the Senedd committed to scrapping Labour’s 20mph speed limit.”
Just two days before, their leader Darren Millar had tweeted this:
Decarbonising can’t leave people behind
The Bevan Foundation has published a major report that warns efforts to decarbonise Wales’ transport system risk leaving thousands behind.
Major reforms and investment in transport are planned for the coming years as part of broader efforts to reduce carbon emissions. This investment presents an opportunity to address some of the challenges faced by people living in poverty but there is a risk it just makes things harder for those already struggling.
Joel Davies, lead author of the report, said:
“Decarbonising transport is essential—but it must be done fairly. The Welsh Government has a real opportunity to build a transport system that works for everyone, not just those who can afford to adapt. If policies are not carefully thought through and designed however, there is a risk that they unintentionally worsen poverty and inequality.
“It is vital that the Welsh and UK Governments consider the needs of everyone in Wales when working to decarbonise the transport sector. For example, while promoting the use of electric vehicles might be effective in reducing carbon emissions, they are expensive to buy meaning that people on low income could be left facing higher bills and taxes as wealthier people buy the latest technology.”
Eluned Morgan turns down invite from the King
Wales' First Minister Eluned Morgan has rejected an invite to a state banquet with Donald Trump at Windsor Castle.
Speaking to the BBC the Welsh Government said that she would instead be supporting colleagues at an "incredibly difficult time" after the recent death of Caerphilly Member of the Senedd Hefin David.
Welsh Conservatives struggling to find candidates
I am hearing that the Welsh Tories are struggling to find 96 candidates across Wales to fill all their lists ahead of the election.
This is perhaps unsurprising given they are currently projected to win just six seats.
Two manifestos launched ahead of the election
Both the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges Wales and BMA Cymru Wales have launched their manifestos. Health is likely to be the biggest battleground going into 2026 and organisations are scrambling to try and shape the debate.
Both manifestos call for better planning to focus on "health" not just “health care” with the perception that the focus has been too much on symptoms and not causes.
You know know things are bad when chair of the BMA Welsh Council Iona Collins includes this in her statement:
“The collapse of the NHS is not inevitable”
One of the other calls made is that data is measured and collected in a way that England and Wales data can be compared in order to improve accountability.
Frankly, it would be a nice starting point if simply all data collected within Wales could be compared…
A really cool project few people know about
Down to Earth Project is an award winning social enterprise that uses sustainable building and outdoor activities on the Gower Peninsula to improve the well-being and skills of vulnerable and disadvantaged people.
They have received full planning approval for a flagship community-led manufacturing and training facility that they say is designed to put people and nature at the heart of housing development in Swansea. You can find out more here.
Serious concerns about the performance Growth Deals
Serious concerns have been raised by a Senedd Committee about the performance of Welsh City and Regional Growth Deals, particularly the North Wales Growth Deal and the Cardiff Capital Region City Deal.
The North Wales Growth Deal has struggled because one of its key projects, Trawsfynydd, has fallen though. So far the deal has only created 35 jobs.
The Committee is also concerned about the scale of funding required for the Cardiff Capital Region’s redevelopment of the Aberthaw Power Station, and the impact it could have on public finances.
A procurement dispute led to a £5.25 million settlement and an independent review is underway. The site, purchased for £8.6 million with £30 million allocated for demolition, may require over £1 billion to fully develop.
First Minister questioned about whether Welsh military bases are being used to train Israeli soldiers
Yesterday it was announced that a UN commission of inquiry has concluded that Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
Plaid MS Sioned Williams asked the First Minister to confirm whether Welsh military bases are being used to train Israeli soldiers, and to take action to ensure that no Welsh Government activities, partnerships and procurement practices for companies or activities are implicated in any unlawful occupation or military action by Israel.
The First Minister said:
“The use of military training facilities is a matter for the Ministry for Defence.”
Employment in Wales is lowest in UK
The latest labour market statistics for Wales from the ONS up to July 2025 makes disappointing reading. Wales’ employment rate is the lowest in the whole UK at 70.8%.
England - 75.6%
Scotland - 74.5%
Northern Ireland - 71.8%
Wales - 70.8%
Welsh Police drafted in to cover Donald Trump visit in London
Welsh coppers are being used to manage the state visit of Donald Trump in London. Interestingly, the Met gets extra funding because it has to police a capital city and all the addition security that comes with that. It has long been a bone of contention from South Wales Police that they have never had the same support despite also having a capital city containing a parliament.
That’s all for today. Please share to keep the newsletter growing. The full First Minister interview and the breakdown of the polling will be dropping into your inbox on Sunday.
Diolch!
Will
I can’t say I approve of your location on your graph, Will. If you moved the Tories over next to Reform and brought the Greens and Lib Dem across next to Plaid it would be a far fairer representation of political standpoints and would bring the majority line fairly into the middle of the Labour group - which in any case is likely to fracture into Welsh-orientated Labour and Starmer-orientated Labour.
"Putting aside the fact I am rather pleased with my graph" - sorry to be a colour pedant here Will, but shouldn't the Lib Dems be orange instead of a sort of guacamole green?