Wales' gift to Nigel Farage

Plus, Welsh Labour appear to have kowtowed to Keir Starmer

Hello and welcome to the latest newsletter.

Thank you so much for all the great feedback about the last issue. 

The eagle eyed among you will have noticed that in one of the first sentences I accidentally missed off how many new subscribers had signed up. I left it to the last minute to add this figure and then, like a muppet, sent it without adding the number. I realised that I had made this mistake within about three seconds of hitting send. If you were within 25 miles of the Adamsdown area of Cardiff, you would likely have heard me swearing profanities so I apologise.

Anyway, we move on, and I am delighted to say that we have now reached over 1,000 subscribers in 11 days. Great stuff. 

This newsletter is going to attempt the impossible and endeavour to make electoral reform interesting. It is going to be tough, but together, I reckon we can do it. This is because Welsh Labour have ditched a really important piece of legislation. On top of that, their stated rationale for doing so underscores their relationship with the UK wing of their party. 

We will then discuss how the party has accidentally given a giant, gift wrapped present to Nigel Farage. But first a quick announcement…

Sponsorship!

I am really excited to say that The Will Hayward Newsletter now has a sponsor! The good people at Hello Starling have agreed to offer their support. Funding independent journalism is hard and I'm delighted to have a great Welsh company on board.

In a nutshell, Hello Starling plan and buy media, backed by data, which is designed to get maximum attention and measurable results. They specialise in getting eyes on your organisation, product and website. If you are looking to get a return on investment, a change in perception, more visitors, more subscriptions, a bigger audience or a happier audience, I highly recommend you check them out here.

Dropping gender quotas - A true act of self harm

Right, so the Welsh Government has said they are ditching a bill which aimed to create gender equality inside the Senedd (the Welsh Parliament). This is going to get a bit fiddly but stay with me.

The Welsh Gov were planning to push on with the sexily named Senedd Cymru (Electoral Candidate Lists) Bill. This was a relatively short piece of legislation that largely aimed to introduce measures that will make women more represented in the Senedd.

A good thing right? 

The Welsh Government had previously strenuously supported their gender quota plans

Having a legislature that has equality in women's representation is, in my view, self-evidently a good thing, but it is worth pointing out that this goes far beyond simple matters of fairness. The evidence demonstrates clearly that having more women in politics leads to better politics in areas such as:

• More cross-party working

• Prioritisation of health and education (the things the WG are currently failing on),

• Improved engagement with constituents

• Consideration of women’s priorities (for example better childcare in Norway and more drinking water projects in India were linked to higher levels of female representation)

So what’s to dislike about plans to guarantee a Senedd with gender equality? Well nothing at all according to Welsh Labour up until very recently. The Labour MSs were loud and proud in their support for the bill. 

Back in March the then minister for social justice Jane Hutt, proudly told the chamber that:

This Bill aims to achieve a gender balanced Senedd. Having a Senedd which better reflects the make-up of Wales is good for politics, good for representation and good for policy making.”

Inside the chamber Labour MS after MS would stand up to espouse the virtues of the bill.

Kicking into the long grass

But then in mid July the Welsh Labour Government decided to delay the bill. Instead of pushing on so that it would be in place for the 2026 election, it would instead be introduced in 2030. The principal reasons were that they wanted to iron out any issues or legal challenges, and needed time to do so. 

There were also concerns in some corners about whether the Senedd even had the power to bring in this law. However Jane Hutt was confident that it was “within the legislative competence of Senedd Cymru".

So there was going to be a delay. But crucially, Welsh Labour were still very supportive of the bill.

Jane Hutt literally said in July inside the Senedd:

What we need out of this debate today is your backing and confidence that we are seeking to put the gender quotas into statute here in Wales. It is groundbreaking: no-one else is doing it in the UK; 130 countries are doing it elsewhere.”

Scrapped

But on September 24, the Welsh Government opted to ditch the bill completely?! 

Announcing they were scrapping the bill Ms Hutt now said:

The First Minister will set out her policy and legislative priorities for the remainder of this Senedd term, indicating those areas where the Welsh government will now focus its full energy in delivering tangible outcomes for the people of Wales".

Wait, what?

What has changed in the past two months that caused gender equality in the Senedd to go from being a vital part of making Wales better, to a distraction from achieving “tangible outcomes”?

Realistically there are only a few options that have triggered this change:

1. The new First Minister doesn’t support/prioritise it - this would be quite ironic given she is the first woman ever to hold this office.

2. The new Labour Government in Westminster have indicated they don’t back it.

The reason I think that the second option is a possibility comes from comments made by Jane Hutt back in July when they delayed the legislation. She was asked by Plaid MS Adam Price whether the UK Government could simply bring in what is known as an Order in Council that would guarantee that Wales had the power to do this?

Jane Hutt replied that she had “anticipated this question” and said: 

We have now opened a dialogue with the Wales Office. Our officials have already had a preliminary meeting, and obviously we'll want to update our colleagues and Members…as we go through the next stage, we hope…”

This means that Welsh Labour were actively asking UK Labour for support on this. But now, two months on the legislation has been dropped. I think there are questions to ask here. 

The Welsh Government’s response

I therefore went to the Welsh Government and asked:

1. What conversations were had with UK Labour regarding this decision to drop the policy? 

2. What has changed since July this year when the WG were vocally defending this policy?

3. Do you agree that we are on course for the least representative Senedd we have seen?

To this a Welsh Government spokesman said:

We have a strong track record in women’s representation, which includes the first female First Minister and nine women in our cabinet of fourteen.

We believe it is vital elected bodies represent the diversity of the people in Wales in its widest form. Following feedback the First Minister had while meeting people across Wales over the summer, and our extremely busy legislative programme, we have reflected and taken the decision to address this issue in a different way.

We are therefore accelerating work on diversity and inclusion guidance for political parties in order to implement real and practical change leading up to the 2026 Senedd election, rather than waiting for change in 2030.”

Now if you are still with me I am very glad, because I think there is something really important here.

They are saying that it was the choice of the First Minister to focus on other things. But this seems bizarre as they have already done most of the work with this bill. 

What I also find particularly noteworthy was another point the Welsh Gov made when they responded to me. They added a note that:

There will be an opportunity after the 2026 Senedd election to take stock of where we are and what has been achieved through our reforms. As part of that review the Senedd may want to reflect on the diversity of the seventh Senedd, to learn from what has worked well and where we think further steps may be necessary.

This suggests Welsh Labour believe they will be able to come back to this at a later date. But this is wildly disingenuous or ridiculously naive. To pass the legislation they will need a two thirds majority. After 2026, given the amount of seats Reform are likely to win, the chances of having the numbers to do this are almost zero. 

Has Keir Starmer and UK Labour vetoed their Welsh counterparts?

I believe a compelling argument can be made that UK Labour has stepped in to overrule the Welsh Gov on this issue. 

First off, look at the reaction of Labour MSs:

Julie Morgan said:

I think it is a great shame that the Bill has had to be withdrawn. The Bill did show our ambition to take this place, our national Parliament, a step towards being fully representative of the public that we serve in Wales, and I do hope that this may be picked up in the future by future Governments.

Carolyn Thomas said:

I have been really proud to speak on what we were trying to achieve in Wales when I have been meeting representatives from all the different Parliaments across the world. So, I am disappointed about what’s happening. 

Just watch this footage from Joyce Watson. It is so clear that many Labour MSs are really upset with the decision:

These responses do not seem to me like the comments of a party delighted to be focussing their efforts elsewhere. 

Plaid’s Sioned Williams (who tbf is pretty good at a turn of phrase) said:

I want to make sure that they [Labour MSs] understand. [The Bill] didn't have to be withdrawn; it's not an act of God, it's an act of this Government. I am bitterly disappointed and disturbed at the lack of leadership and this change of direction from this Government and this First Minister who, while celebrating the fact—rightly—that she is Wales's first female in that role, is now binning the very Bill that would ensure that women have an equal voice in this Senedd.”

To be fair, the new First Minister Eluned Morgan has left us in little doubt what her influence is with the new PM given that she compared her influence with Keir Starmer with that of her influence with “Donald Trump”. She also said in the same interview: “I have a relationship now with Keir Starmer, but I’ve only met him once, so let us not overstate my influence."

Imagine for a moment that it was a lack of UK Labour support that has caused this bill to be abandoned. Now imagine if it had been the former Conservative Government that had done this. Welsh Labour would be howling with outrage. Not only would those “dastardly Tories” have stopped a fairer and more equal Senedd, they would have been accused of failing to support devolution. 

Sources have indicated to me that UK Labour did not support the bill. If that is the case (again, not confirmed), then hard not to see Welsh Labour as hypocritical for trying to sweep this under the carpet. 

A gift to Nigel Farage?