This is getting embarrassing…

Wales needs a champion. But where are they?

Bore da,

Thanks for all the feedback after the last few newsletters. If you missed my interview with Rhun ap Iorwerth you can read it here.

I know a few of you have asked questions in the comments. I do read them! I plan on doing a questions answering newsletter so if you have any others please stick them in the comments section below.

There is so much I want to touch on today I am going to structure the newsletter a bit differently. There will be more sections but I will go into less detail in each one.

Before we start, a word from our sponsor:

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What the spring statement means for Wales

First things first, if you want a really in depth analysis of what Rachel Reeves’ spring statement means for Wales you can read the excellent blog by the Cardiff Uni academic Guto Ifan here. I will be drawing on it for this section.

So what are the changes announced?

Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Liz Kendall had already announced cuts to sickness and disability benefits payments. This involves:

• Increasing the threshold of disability severity needed to be awarded Personal Independence Payments (PIP).

• Removal of the Universal Credit Health related top ups for those under 22.

• Halving of the Universal Credit health related top up (down to £50) for new claimants.

The spring statement then added further cuts:

• A reduction in the amount that standard Universal Credit would rise by.

• The freezing of the Universal Credit health element for new claimants (it is already frozen for people currently getting it).

This will save about £4.8 billion with the changes to PIP the largest part of the change with those impacted losing on average £4,500 per year. Across the UK it will also push a further 250,000 people, including 50,000 children, into poverty.

This hurts Wales more

In Cymru there are 275,000 people who receive the PIP and 110,000 people who receive Universal Credit and have Limited Capability for Work Related Activity. This is 11% of our working age population compared to 7% in England.

Guto Ifan said:

“We would expect the impact of these cuts to be particularly pronounced in Wales. The average per person PIP payment is also slightly higher in Wales, possibly indicating more severe disabilities on average.

“We would expect to see the greatest impact in areas which have the highest claimant proportions and relatively low average per person payments, areas such as Merthyr Tydfil and Blaenau Gwent.”

Is this what a “partnership in power” looks like”?

Given that Wales is going to be disproportionately affected by these changes it seems fair to ask what the Welsh Government is going to do to mitigate it. I asked them what impact assessment had been undertaken and a spokesperson told me:

"It is for the UK Government to undertake impact assessments for their decisions in reserved matters such as this. The First Minister has written to the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on this matter."

One might perhaps hope that the Welsh Government would be assessing what these cuts mean to Wales. After all, when it was the Tories making the cuts they were relentless in highlighting what this would mean for Wales’ most vulnerable. However, when Eluned Morgan was questioned in the Senedd’s Committee for the Scrutiny of the First Minister she was “reserving” judgment on this.

There was a really awkward exchange with Plaid’s Llyr Gruffydd including a pause which lasted an age:

Why safe seats are so shite - A Welsh Labour MP speaks out

The silence has generally been deafening from Welsh Labour MPs on the cuts to benefits. I know from private conversations I have had with several of them that there is real discontent among them about the cuts, yet few have had the courage to speak out.

On who has is Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr MP Steve Witherden. He called for a wealth tax instead saying:

"If you think of things like a mobility car, it's the PIP that is enabling some disabled people to continue to work, so I don't think we would want to see anything that would jeopardise or undermine anything that facilitates or enables disabled people to get work and stay in work.

"There is a lot of concern out there from disabled constituents in Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, who are writing to me about the future of PIP. People want to stay independent.

“I was one of the 30 MPs who was a signatory to an open letter calling for a wealth tax in this country, a tax on extreme wealth.

"Four Britons have more wealth than 20 million Britons combined, so I think there are solutions available out there to us and a wealth tax would be one of them."

He is actually quite an interesting guy. He is dyslexic and was illiterate till the age of 11. He worked as a teacher and only joined the party in 2015 and it was George Osbourne’s “reforms” to PIP that motivated that.

MP Steve Witherden

But what I really want to draw attention to with regards to Mr Witherden, is his seat. When the General Election was called he had next to no chance at all of winning. Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr was easily the safest Tory seat in Wales. However, you may remember that sitting Tory MP Craig Williams torpedoed his chances by making a bet on the date of the election.

This means Mr Witherden knows that, whatever he does, he is probably not going to have a job in four years time. That situation makes MPs far more inclined to put their heads above the parapet and speak up on behalf of their constituents. They know they need to have something to show for their time in office. The jeopardy of potentially losing seats makes them, frankly, better local MPs.

This to me underscores why having lots of safe seats under a first-past-the-post system is so corrosive to the very principles of representative democracy. It also shows the huge shortcomings of the closed list system that we have created for the Senedd. The onus isn’t on MSs to please their constituents, from a self-preservation perspective, it is far more important they please their party.

What people in Wales think

Perhaps the most curious thing about Labour’s refusal to introduce a wealth tax is how popular it would be. Some polling by Oxfam Cymru has looked at public opinions on wealth taxes across Wales and the results are absolutely clear - people really want to tax the rich more.

Though the below data is Wales specific it is almost exactly the same across the wider UK.

First, let’s look at how many people would rather tax the richest people more rather than cut public services:

The numbers are the percentage of people polled. As you can see almost 80% would prefer to increase taxes on the rich.

People are also very support when asked about a wealth tax on those with assets over £10m:

“But” I hear you cry, “Labour are trying to appeal to Reform voters and don’t want to risk alienating them”. Well this argument also has no bearing when we look at the data.

When you break down the answers by party you find that, though Tory and Reform voters are less in favour than Plaid or Labour voters when it comes to a wealth tax, they still overwhelmingly support it:

Please don’t think I am saying that a wealth tax is a magic bullet. There is evidence that they are not that effective over a long period. But there is clearly an appetite for maintaining public services and investing in our country rather than continued cuts.

The UK Government is essentially refusing to allow Wales to fix its health service

Stay with me here.

• The UK Government has deliberately taken action which increases poverty in Wales. This is a fact.

• They did not have to do this. It was underpinned by their self imposed restraints.

• The issues in the Welsh NHS are not merely health problems. They are societal problems. The NHS pressures are all driven by Wales’ atrocious poverty rates.

• You cannot fix the Welsh NHS without fixing poverty.

• Any politician who doesn’t acknowledge this is not, in my view, serious about fixing our health service.

The problems Wales (and the UK) face are so deep rooted, you simply can not tackle them without fundamental changes to how we tax, deliver healthcare and govern the country. You need long term strategies not sticking plasters.

Wales has no control over welfare and our tax raising powers are derisory. Even a competent Welsh Government couldn’t make the changes needed without either much more support, or far more powers.

Surely given this situation our elected government in Wales must be relentlessly and assertively fighting our corner with their comrades in UK Labour. Well, prepare to be disappointed…

This is getting embarrassing…