The endgame: Welsh Labour's conference
Starmer gets out of there quick
I am writing this newsletter from Venue Cymru in Llandudno at the Welsh Labour conference.
The first thing to say is that it was a weird one. As I walked in, there was a farming protest taking place outside where a woman said that I should be “hung” for what I had done. I am not sure what I had done and I am not sure if she was actually a farmer, but at least I have the comfort of knowing that she said the same thing to at least six other people.
When you enter the lobby, you’re greeted with a huge red banner declaring “the Red Welsh Way”. I am still not sure what that means, though in my defence, I am not sure many people in Welsh Labour do either.
I have covered a lot of conferences and the energy here was exactly like the Tory conference last spring. A feeling of impending doom. A party that knows they are in a hole, one partially of their own making, and hoping that simply using a different brand of spade will help them dig their way out.
There was a lot of insight at this conference, and some hilarity. Let’s dive in.
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Keir Starmer’s speech…
I would have loved to bring you an interview with Keir Starmer. I requested one, as did other media outlets like WalesOnline, but Mr Starmer started his speech at 10.05am and was in his getaway car by 10.35am. That is impressive given there was 40 minutes allocated to his speech.
Before we get into the substance, let me just tell you how much fun I had watching the autocue…
DEE-OCK!
So Mr Starmer used an autocue for his speech. But not those small screens placed in front of a speaker you usually see. No, his speech was put up on two enormous plasma screens at the back of the hall. This meant that the audience could read the speech before it happened. My favourite bit was how the PM had all the words in Welsh written phonetically. Diolch became “DEE-OCK” with Penderyn Whiskey written “Pen-DER-in”.
I am not trying to have a pop at the guy here.
Has my anglicised tongue ever struggled with Welsh pronunciation? Yes.
Have I ever written Welsh words phonetically when public speaking? Yes.
But when you are trying to make the point that you understand Wales and Welsh priorities, perhaps don’t write DEE-OCK for the whole conference to see. Especially as this isn’t even how “diolch” is actually pronounced.
Disability cuts…
Welsh Labour conferences are never normally that warm for UK leaders but I have heard few sounds quieter than when the Prime Minister tried to justify the proposed cuts to disability benefit. Don’t forget, no part of the UK will be harder hit than Wales by these proposals.
He said:
This government is making different choices. Even when they are difficult. Like welfare.
We cannot take away the safety net that vulnerable people rely on – and we won’t...
And everyone agrees that our welfare system is broken - failing people every day.
Fixing it is a moral imperative.
But we need to do it in a Labour way, conference.
You could have heard a pin drop.
A bizarre attack on Plaid
Perhaps the strangest part of the PM’s speech was the way the party is positioning itself to counter Plaid. He talked about the danger of:
“A backroom stitch up between the Tories, Reform and Plaid.”
If their plan going forward is to suggest that Plaid Cymru are planning some secret pact/alliance with Reform, that is very odd. Plaid announced some time before Labour that they would not enter into any deal with Reform.
Both Plaid and Reform have both ruled out any such deal since the speech.
When I approached Eluned Morgan about these comments her response was basically “well I didn’t say them”.
She said:
“Well, the key thing for me is that I think Reform is a threat. I don't think I said there's a backroom deal between Plaid and Reform, but I do think that the key thing to remember is Reform is a real threat. There are things that occur in our everyday lives, the fact we have free prescriptions, the fact we can use the NHS, the fact that we have workers rights, the fact that we have a lot of public sector jobs. This could be taken away from us if we had a Reform government.”
The First Minister was very firm after the interview that she was not suggesting that Plaid and Reform could do a “backroom stitch-up”. This begs the question of why the UK Labour party sent out a press release saying just that and the PM repeated it in his speech?
What I think this shows is how UK Labour are utterly blinkered to what the actual situation is in Wales and where Welsh Labour’s votes are going. The idea that a vote for Plaid would let Reform in through the back door suggests that UK Labour have no idea about the proportional system their own party introduced.
The hole in Labour’s logic no one seems to have noticed
Welsh Labour spent a lot of this conference saying that the extra funding that Wales received in the spending review was down to their lobbying. In her speech Eluned Morgan said:
“We made the case for Wales - clearly, confidently, and with conviction. And they didn’t just listen, Keir Starmer and his team heard us and worked with us.”
Let’s put aside for a moment the fact that the money Wales got was less than we would have been entitled to under a fair funding model, and really think about what Eluned Morgan is saying here.
She is basically saying:
“Without us, Wales would have not got the money it has”.
Ultimately, if it was Welsh Labour who secured this money for Wales, you can read this as UK Labour would not have given Wales the money for coal tips, NHS uplifts and education without Welsh Labour pressure.
Does this mean that if another party was running the Welsh Government this money would not have been forthcoming? Is Wales funding purely down to lobbying and not fairness and need?
If this is the case then it underlines how the current system of funding leaves Wales totally vulnerable to the whims of Westminster. All the more concerning given we may have a different party running the Welsh Government to who is in Downing Street after next year.
I asked the First Minister about this…
Will Hayward: Do you think that if there hadn't been a Welsh Labour government in the Senedd and in the Welsh Government, that Wales would have got that money?
Eluned Morgan: We didn’t get the money for the past 10 years…
WH: But I am talking about UK Labour this time around. Do you think we'd have got the windfall that we got from the spending review without a Labour Government in the Senedd?
EM: I am not going to speculate what would happen if this situation didn't exist. What I can tell you is we made a fuss about winter fuel allowance, we made a fuss about welfare reforms. For all of these things we made it clear that our position is not necessarily where the UK Labor Government was. [I was] making the case for Wales, because that is my job, standing up for the people of Wales, and I'm really pleased that they listened.
It seems a bit contradictory to suggest Wales got the extra money because Welsh Labour made the case and applied pressure while saying she is not going to speculate on whether the same decisions would have been made without that same pressure…
But if we interrogate what the First Minister said there are other serious holes in her argument. The idea that the welfare reforms changed because “Welsh Labour made a fuss” is self-evidently not correct. Keir Starmer U-turned on the changes to disability benefits because over 100 of his MPs rebelled. Welsh Labour MPs can’t even claim credit for this as only five out out of the 29 of them were among the rebels.
I asked the FM about this:
WH: But the winter fuel U-turn wasn't done because of Welsh Labour though was it? It was because of a back bench rebellion in Westminster.
EM: Well, all of this is pressure on the UK government to change their minds, and our letter went at the beginning of the week. So I'd like to take a little bit of credit, but I accept that the backbenchers also had a big say.
This is still a really divided party
The night before the conference the party held a “disco night” at Broadway Boulevard - a nightclub in Llandudno. I thought I would go along to get a feel for the mood in the party. People tend to let their hair down more at these things and are happy to chew the fat. Admittedly this is helped by the fact that the prices there were terrifyingly cheap (£2 for a single and mixer?!).
Eluned Morgan was dancing to “Ra Ra Rasputin” in a top saying “The Red Welsh Way” and wrapped in a Welsh flag. She at least was having a good time.
Without breaking any confidences, it’s obvious that the mood in the party is low. There are still divisions between the former Gething and Miles camps and there is real anger at UK Labour within the Senedd group.
I think perhaps one of the most surprising things for me is how far behind Labour appears to be compared to Plaid in terms of preparing for the election. Welsh Labour are still bogged down in selecting candidates. Labour is considering whether the list for any given seat will be "zipped" which means that if the top person was male the next would be female and vice versa. There are apparently concerns over the legality of this plan which is causing a delay.
Either way it means that candidates will not know if they are selected until the autumn. Contrast this to Plaid who are well ahead with many candidates already knowing they are on the list . One frustrated Labour member told me “Plaid candidates are already out there campaigning and on message. They are months ahead of us”.
If you are not that familiar with Welsh politics, Plaid being more organised that Labour is a real change. Welsh Labour has far more staff and resources than Plaid Cymru, the fact that Labour are behind them on organisation should be a real concern for them.
The Crown Estate - the part of Eluned Morgan’s speech that UK Labour refused to clap
One of the things I like about Labour conferences is that other Labour politicians are on the stage when speeches are being given. This means you can see their reactions.
The part of Eluned Morgan’s speech (which took almost an hour and was just under 5,000 words) that received the biggest response from the audience was when she talked about devolving the Crown Estate.
She said:
We will continue to pursue further powers. Not for show.
But because if we want a stronger Wales - we need the tools to build it ourselves.
Control over youth justice - focused on rehabilitation.
A fair deal on the Crown Estate - so the wealth from our natural resources stays in Wales.
And as your First Minister, I will never stop pressing for more.
This received easily the biggest applause of the whole speech. One person not applauding was Carolyn Harris who is the Labour MP for Neath and Swansea East. Crucially, she is the deputy leader of Welsh Labour. You would think that the deputy leader of Welsh Labour would be applauding a Welsh Labour policy but because UK Labour do not want to devolve the Crown Estate, she opposes it.
The hostility of the Starmer Government to further powers for Wales is plain for all to see.
Eluned Morgan, Jo Stevens and “peddling lies” about Wales’ rail funding
When I heard Jo Stevens take to the stage and celebrate the funding she had secured for Wales on rail my jaw hit the floor. I actually saw two Labour politicians turn around to look at me. They knew this was utter bollocks.
Let’s break this down what she said and watch the video of how Eluned Morgan tried to defend it…
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