The big Welsh politics predictions for 2026
We are in for an interesting year...
We are back!
I am so excited to be back at my keyboard writing newsletters and talking about Welsh politics. No, I am not being sarcastic. This year is the biggest year in Welsh politics since devolution (and for a fair while before that). What reporter doesn’t want to cover things that really matter?
Though it can often feel a bit bleak, politics should ultimately be a vehicle for change, improving our lives and world. Having as informed an electorate as possible and holding those in power to account is a vital part of this process and the team and I are genuinely excited to play our part.
To kick off 2026 I am going to be making some big predictions for what lies ahead. Please bear in mind that I am not saying that all of these things will definitely happen. Some are outside bets to say the least.
We will begin by looking at my predictions for last year to see how I got on (there were some hits and big misses…).
Before we start, I want to talk to you about Hello Starling.
Those of you who have been with me since the start will know all about Hello Starling. They are media planning and buying specialists. But what does that actually mean? Well let me give you some examples of what they do:
South Wales Fire and Rescue Service - they worked with the fire service to find new candidates for full time firefighters. This led to over 1,690 applications.
Visit Warwickshire - they ran a digital campaign for them which reached 1.9m people!
HorseWorld - They ran a campaign that led to over 20,000 new subscribers for HorseWorld’s mailing list (I wish I had as many subscribers as HorseWorld).
Last year’s predictions - how did I do?
I know many journalists. One thing we almost all have in common is that we love to dish it out but can’t take it. I am no exception to this so you will understand how much I hate pointing out when I got things wrong.
So in the spirit of self-mortification let’s take a look at my predictions from last year.
Andrew RT Davies will join Reform, but quickly become disgruntled and fall out with them - (WRONG)
A big swing and a miss for me here. While Mr Davies appears to be in a perpetual state of disgruntlement, he did not join Reform.
Labour will make what they think is a big offer on rail funding, but it will fall well short and compound their challenges in Wales - (CORRECT)
I feel bad even taking credit for this because this was so obviously going to happen. At the start of June the mood music coming out of UK Labour was that Wales was going to get a “great deal” on rail which would “right the wrongs” on HS2. Then two weeks later in the spending review Rachel Reeves announced a squib so damp it had dissolved.
The announcement did nothing to fix the historic underspend on HS2, nothing to make up the shortfall in the future and nothing to stop it happening again. The bonanza that was promised was comparable to what was spent on a single station in Leeds. Overall Wales got £348m, Scotland got £3.2bn.
Multiple Reform candidates/councillors will be mired in scandal - (SORT OF)
“Mired in scandal” was probably a bit strong and depends on your definition of scandal. Certainly many of them came off as prats. You can read our special reports into Reform in Wales here and here.
Waiting lasts will fall but Eluned Morgan will miss her target by 5k - (WRONG)
The FM said that the longest NHS waiting lists would be down to “around 8,000” by May 2025. In the end it was down to 8,389. So she wasn’t far off. I was too sceptical and got this one wrong. However, given the current situation with data collection in Betsi Cadwaladr Health Board, I wonder if anyone has ever had the correct figures…
The Greens will start polling at 10% (CORRECT)
When I made this prediction in 2024 the Greens were on 6%. Just before Christmas polls put them on 9% for Senedd Elections and 14% for General Elections in Wales. I am taking this as a correct answer (let me have this).
The Welsh Government will totally kowtow to farmers on tree planting (CORRECT)
They did.
Predictions for 2026
Now that we have finished last year, let’s set me up for a humiliation this time next year. These are my predictions for 2026:
A Reform/Plaid dominated Senedd
Right, I am going to give you some predictions for seats in the Senedd. I totally reserve the right to amend these predictions nearer the time as we get more information and data.
My numbers prediction inside the Senedd is:
Plaid: 40
Reform: 38
Labour: 8
Conservative 4
Green 4
Lib Dems 2
Remember, this system is so hard to predict and who gets the 6th seat in each area will really matter. The likelihood is that there will only be a few votes in it.
My prediction is based around the following:
Labour are wildly unpopular and Keir Starmer will still be PM. I also can’t see Welsh Labour doing anything remotely radical enough to distinguish themselves from UK Labour or outline a vision for the future in the next few months.
It will be in the interests of both Plaid and Reform to portray the election as a battle between the two of them. Both will want to push the idea that a vote for anyone besides them is a vote for the other. This will be an especially powerful message for Plaid and I believe it will mean many people who aren’t that enamoured with Plaid will give them their vote.
Rhun ap Iorwerth is First Minister in a minority government
Based on the numbers above, Reform and the Tories together are on 42 which is seven short of a majority (49 seats).
I think Rhun ap Iorwerth will be voted First Minister with the support of the Greens and Lib Dems. Labour will abstain.
Plaid will then lead a minority Government with parties offering support on a vote by vote basis.
Eluned Morgan loses seat
The First Minister is top of the Labour list for Ceredigion Penfro (Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire). I think there is a strong chance she will lose her seat.
As a cheeky side prediction I also think the reality of this situation will hit Welsh Labour a few weeks before the election. This will lead them to pour resources and UK cabinet ministers into the area at the expense of other constituencies where they have a better chance of winning.
By the end of the year Plaid and Labour will have a formal agreement
This one is a bit more of a punt. If Labour performs badly and Eluned Morgan loses her seat there is likely to be a big inquest into exactly what went wrong and a leadership contest.
It is hard to guess who the new leader will be because so many of the old guard are stepping down (it’s no fun to be in politics if you aren’t winning is it?). There are quite a few constituencies where the person at the top of the list is not an existing MS so who knows how the group will be composed.
I would expect that the resulting conclusions of a post election inquest will be that Welsh Labour strayed too far from their core values and let the Clear Red Water evaporate. There will then be a recalibration under a new leader who will be desperate to distance themselves from the UK Government and show their Welsh credentials. I can imagine a scenario where they enter into a cooperation type agreement with Plaid in the winter of 2026 where they will lend support in exchange for certain policy considerations.
Will Hayward delivers training and talks to senior leaders across a range of organisations on Welsh politics. To see how this could help your organisation contact: Will@willhayward.co.uk
Controversy for Plaid Cymru candidates and new Senedd Members
We have talked a great deal about how inexperienced (and frankly bizarre) some of Reform’s candidates are likely to be. Well I think there is a pretty good chance that some of Plaid’s candidates may also make headlines for the wrong reasons.
Given the way they are polling, people outside the top two on Plaid’s party lists have a not insignificant chance of getting in. This means that people who have very little experience or profile will have a chance of sitting in the Welsh Parliament.
I am not saying it is a bad thing for new blood to be in the Senedd but this could lead to an influx of people whose views and histories have not previously been subject to scrutiny.
Although it is going to be impossible for those in 5th or 6th spots on the party lists to be elected, they will still come under the spotlight. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if someone on Plaid’s lists makes headlines for saying something ridiculously anti-English.
All parties will grossly misrepresent the electoral situation in their areas
In the election, if you want to vote tactically, how you do so will be very dependent on the area in which you live. Given how large the constituencies are, this will be very hard to work out.
I guarantee you that at some point all parties will grossly simplify or misrepresent the polling in a particular area. Remember when Labour were putting out leaflets the week before the Caerphilly byelection saying only they can stop Reform? Expect a lot more of this.
Andrew RT Davies becomes Welsh Tory leader again
Just like your nan’s irritable bowl syndrome after Christmas dinner, I predict that Andrew RT Davies will return with a vengeance as Welsh Tory leader.
Think about it. If the Tories end up with just a handful of MSs, Darren Millar’s position could be untenable. We know his heart isn’t really in it anyway (ran to be an MP in 2024, had another job while being leader, missed key votes to hobnob in USA). If he does step down or lose his seat, there will be an opening…
There are arguments against this. Given that incumbents are topping most of the Tory lists, where will Mr Davies’ allies come from? Less than two years ago they moved against him to topple him. However, if they have just been crushed by Reform, there may be a temptation to turn back to the man who seemingly prides himself on impersonating them.
If Mr Millar doesn’t step down straight after the election, I predict Tom Giffard will be the next leader whenever the time comes.
Turnout will top 50% for the 1st time ever
I believe 2026 will be the first time that the turnout in the Senedd election exceeds 50%.
We saw it creep over 50% in the Caerphilly by-election and historically by-elections don’t always get great numbers voting.
People are more aware of devolution than ever before. The motivation from some to stop Reform and others to kick the establishment will be a big driver.
In 2021 there was a 46.6% turnout and that was when many people were very apprehensive about going out in public due to Covid.
If I had to put a number on it, I would say 54% turnout.
Reform loses a third for their MSs within a year…
I speak to people from Reform regularly. The only thing they hate more than immigrants is each other.
