Scrutinising the Welsh Greens
We asked them about their plans for Wales
Today the Green Party of England and Wales launched their Senedd election campaign at Jacobs Antique Centre in Cardiff City Centre. Before you even walked in you likely would have guessed it was a Green Party launch because of the amount of bikes locked up outside.
Both Ryan and I were at the event speaking to candidates and questioning Zack Polanski and the party’s Wales leader Anthony Slaughter.
I have reported from several Green Party events over the last decade and this one was different. There was confidence, there was energy, there was outside attention and the inescapable reality that the people in this room could have a central role in shaping the direction of the next Welsh Government. Or even, whisper it, occupying ministerial positions in cabinet.
This event was very insightful because it encapsulated the Welsh Greens’ great opportunities and strengths, while also highlighting their shortcomings and weaknesses. Let’s dive in…
A level of confidence not seen before
Back in January 2025 this newsletter sat down with Anthony Slaughter and asked him what success in the 2026 election would look like?
He said that getting one Green in the Senedd would be a success as well as at least one Green councillor in all 22 Welsh local authorities in the 2027 council elections.
Fast forward just over a year and one of their candidates for Caerdydd Penarth Tessa Marshall was telling the assembled audience on Tuesday:
“We know we will get a significant number of Senedd Members”.
Zack Polanski said in his speech that “he wasn’t a fan of kings and queens” but that his party could be the kingmakers after the election. All of these speeches were backdropped by a display showing three words: “Hope is here”.
The polls suggest that the Greens could end up with 10 seats after the election. For context, that same polling suggests Plaid could get 43, which is short of the magic number of 49 needed to gain a majority in the Senedd.
The Greens’ polling is an unprecedented surge compared to just a year before. But in this growth we see both their strengths and weaknesses.
Growing pains?
If the Greens do end up with around 10 Senedd members there will be people walking into the Welsh Parliament after May 7 who had no idea a year ago that this was even a remote possibility.
In some ways this is a huge strength. We have reported in this newsletter ad nauseam how desperate Wales is for people to rock the boat and break Cymru out of its seemingly eternal stagnation. People entering politics from other walks of life is a great way to do this. The best way to end the status quo is to end the status quo.
No one can look at the Greens in Wales and think they are a bunch of career politicians. At a time when people are increasingly frustrated with politics, clearly not being the establishment is a strength.
However, there is no doubt that in this inexperience lies some of their biggest challenges going forward. It is clear that the Greens’ popularity has grown faster than their internal infrastructure.
The polling by YouGov we talked about over the weekend forecast them to win 10 seats but in their analysis the Wales Governance Centre said that in one of the seats they were forecast to win they hadn’t even announced a candidate at the time of the polling. If Reform UK had failed to name a candidate where they were forecast to win we would probably be talking about their lack of organisation (it’s worth noting that the Greens have now announced a full slate of candidates).
It is not unreasonable for the Greens to suggest that they could have a key role in the make-up of the next Welsh Government. However, if you are positioning yourselves as the “kingmakers” you are also positioning yourself as a serious, legitimate force. With it comes far more scrutiny, pressure and most importantly, responsibility.
As we will see from some of the questions below, they don’t yet have all the answers.
What is the difference between the Greens and Plaid Cymru?
On a whole range of policy areas there is a huge overlap between the Greens and Plaid. They have stood on joint tickets in recent local elections in parts of Wales and are both supporters of independence.
This begs the question - what is the difference? Now Plaid can (and do) make the point that Welsh Greens are actually “The Green Party of England and Wales” whereas Plaid are a solely Welsh party.
This event was the first time I have heard the Greens really go on the attack against Plaid in any significant way. Caerdydd Penarth candidate Tessa Marshall took a bit of a swipe at Plaid saying many of their policies were “centrist” and that they act left-wing “in South Wales.”
Ryan asked Anthony Slaughter about the differences between Plaid and his party at the event.
Ryan O’Neill: Things are changing so fast in Wales at the moment. Say I’m a disillusioned Labour voter, and I want to vote for a different progressive party in Wales. What would you say to convince them to vote Green over Plaid?
Anthony Slaughter:
“We’re getting this a lot on the doorstep, knocking people’s doors, asking ‘can I ask how you voted last time?’ And they’ll say Labour. And I always just pause for a moment and ask ‘how’s that going?’ And the expressions and some of the language is quite spicy. People are very angry and disappointed with Labour. And what I say to them is they’re not leaving the Labour Party. The Labour Party has left them.
“And if they want to vote for those values of equality and justice and redistribution, the Green Party are offering that. We are the progressive voice in Welsh politics, and we are getting a lot of ex-Labour members joining us. They are part of the increasing membership.”
RO: We’ve heard your party today actually say that Plaid aren’t a left party. Can you tell me what the key difference is? If you were speaking to one of those voters on the doors, what would be the difference between yourself and Plaid?
AS: “I wouldn’t have used those words. There are some very good people in Plaid that we share a lot in common with. There are also some people on the other side of the political spectrum within Plaid, that are very managerial and very timid. Like all parties, they’re an internal coalition. We saw that backtracking on climate and nature targets, and there are colleagues who I would happily work with who do share our values, but we will be offering the radical, bold progressive policies that the country needs.”
RO: If I could ask you just for one example of something that you think differentiates you from Plaid?
AS: “I think they try and face both ways on some issues, and they’ve tied themselves in knots over the discussion about infrastructure. This is infrastructure that’s needed to deliver the renewable energy revolution that Wales needs, and that is a key area.
“I speak to environmental organizations who are worried, despite there being some good people in Plaid, that we’re going to see backtracking, which has already started, the backtracking on climate and nature.
“So that is crucial to us. We’re a party that stands up for tenants, not landlords. We stand up for workers, not factory owners. And I think that’s a difference.”
You will have noticed that Mr Slaughter wasn’t keen to criticise his most likely future allies in the Senedd. However he clearly feels that the point of difference between the Greens and Plaid comes down to radicalism.
Zack Polanski
If you want to understand how the culture of the Green Party is very different from the established parties like Labour, it was perfectly illustrated by Zack Polanski’s response to one of our questions.
The difference between the Greens in Scotland compared to Wales is that the Scottish Greens are a separate party to the one led by Zack Polanski. The Welsh Greens by contrast are, though very autonomous, ultimately under the England and Wales umbrella.
I asked Mr Polanski what his reaction would be if the Welsh Greens won big in the Senedd election and decided they wanted to split from the wider party. He said:
“I think the only answer would be ‘understood, how can I help?’ If that is what the Wales Green Party wants then I’m happy to support and facilitate it and to do whatever I can to make that happen.”
He added that they were all part of the wider European and global Green movement.
Mr Slaughter then added that he really appreciated the broader England and Wales party but that the Welsh Greens “didn’t need their permission”.
The heavily decentralised mentality of the Greens is such a stark contrast to many other parties. Just a few months ago Keir Starmer issued a memo to ministers not to be “too deferential” to the Welsh Labour Government.
Welsh independence?
Both Plaid and the Greens are pro-Welsh independence. However it appeared that, like Rhun ap Iorwerth, Mr Slaughter doesn’t see it as a vote winner in May. He said the party “won’t be pushing pro-indy” messaging but that they “proudly” stand by the policy.
Scrutinising the Green’s main policy
The closer you get to power, the more the level of scrutiny goes up. Mr Slaughter has repeatedly said that if he was to be part of a future coalition, the housing brief is the one he would like most.
Their big headline policy is rent controls. At the launch they said that they would initially want to bring in a rent freeze before introducing rent controls. While there are merits to the policy, there are also serious considerations and obstacles to be overcome for it to avoid unintended consequences.
For example, rent controls risks pushing up the prices for people who are entering the rental market. It can also act as a disincentivising factor in people downsizing their homes.
We spoke to Mr Slaughter about it:
Ryan O’Neill: Rent controls can impact people who are currently renting differently to how it impacts new renters entering the market. Do you have any sense of how this policy would work, and how you protect newer renters?
AS: “It’s a very tricky subject, which is why we acknowledge that and we don’t want any unintended consequences. We want it to be as fair as possible. But people have been badly ripped off paying exorbitant rents for often uninhabitable homes with damp and mould. So it needs to be fixed. We recognize the complexities in fixing that.
“So that’s why I’m speaking to my Scottish colleagues quite a lot. The Scottish Greens who delivered this in government and finding out what worked and what didn’t work from them is invaluable.
“But recognising that complexity is why we just want a rent freeze for a certain amount of time, not endless, not unlimited, but just to pause, give people some breathing space and work together with some services, the stakeholders, to deliver a fair and equitable system that works for everyone.”
RO: I’m speaking in hypotheticals, obviously, but say you are renting. You’ve had a family, two kids, you’ve got a four-bed home. Then your kids have left home, and your partner passes away. All of a sudden you’re living in a house that’s too big for you.
Under a system like rent controls it can create a disincentive for people to leave houses that are too big for them because they may not get as good a deal on rent. How would you deal with that?
AS: “There are always going to be issues, as I said, unintended consequences. That’s why it’s so important to get it absolutely right. But the other thing about this as well, because people often raise ‘oh you’re going to lower the amount of housing available, because it won’t be an attractive option to be a landlord anymore.’
“But tied together with the rent controls and rent freeze is an ambitious program of building enough social housing so there are homes. Everyone should have access to an affordable home.
“So it’s taking the two together, not the one in isolation. I recognise the complexity of it, and that’s why we’re determined to take time and get it right.”
RO: Which party’s offer on social housing do you find attractive? I’m sure you’d love to be talking about a Green Party majority government, but the reality is you will likely be a partner to a big party.
AS: “I think Plaid would align quite strongly with us. We’ll see their manifesto next week, the day before ours. We’ll have a clearer idea next week of where we do profoundly disagree. I think they have the same ambition and aspiration as us. It’ll be interesting to see what they’re proposing compared to what we’re proposing. Labour have talked a good talk, but not really delivered.”
Mr Slaughter has clearly admitted the challenges with the policy and sees an initial rent freeze as a way to mitigate harms while putting together more long-term plans if they are in office.
This focus on housing is unsurprising given the latest data shows that Green voters are least likely to be homeowners.
Urban v rural
This newsletter has reported many times that the biggest holes/inconsistencies in Plaid’s offer is around both green energy and the environment/farming. In both these cases it’s because Plaid are hesitant to piss off their rural base by arguing for more pylons to meet green energy needs and for changes to agriculture in Wales to help us decarbonise.
You can see why Plaid are desperate to keep the votes of people in the countryside. Plaid are currently doing far better than the Greens in rural areas while the Greens are performing very well in large urban areas like Cardiff.
However, in the questioning of Anthony Slaughter during the press conference at the event you could see that there were shortcomings in the Green messaging too. We asked Mr Slaughter how farming would need to change to tackle the climate and nature emergency and whether, crucially, we would need fewer sheep. I think you can see from the video below that he didn’t really answer it:
While I think the acknowledgement of the need to bring farmers along is vital, it didn’t address the details of what farming in Wales will look like in a decade’s time.
That’s all for today. The only thing that seems guaranteed in Welsh politics right now is change. We will be there with you every step of the way in the coming months.
You will be getting the Rhun ap Iorwerth interview over the weekend.
As always, this sort of journalism takes time so please consider becoming a paying subscriber to help support us. You can also donate directly here.
Diolch
Will and Ryan
Nothing on health or education??
Anyone wanting to create a better deal for tenants should tread warily. We moved to Paris just after the introduction of the Quillot law*, which:
"...had the following distinctive features :
Protecting tenants in a crisis context (oil counter-shock, inflation, etc.)
Reinstate rent control to protect tenants from excessive rents.
Making it more difficult to evict tenants even in cases of non-payment
All these measures, at the time of their implementation (from 1982 to 1986), had the drawback of causing:
A sharp drop in private rental housing construction
Landlords are very reluctant to rent to the poorest tenants to protect themselves from bad payers."
We could not have made the move at a worse time. For just about any flat, there would be queues of 80 people trying to rent it. It was a nightmare. After a number of failures, out of desperation we ended up in a poorly insulated and mouldy property. Shortly before our lease was up, a thunderstorm led to rain pouring through the roof!
FWIW, I think that first of all more social housing needs to be built to replace that sold at knock-down prices by the Thatcher government... but that takes time. Rent increases should be tied to a recognised measure of inflation, and legislation should protect landlords as well as tenants.
*https://www.partenaire-europeen.fr/loi-quilliot-du-22-juin-1982