Reform are treating Wales as a joke
Nigel Farage's company aren't even going to name a Welsh leader before the election
Good morning all,
Apologies for this newsletter being a couple of days late - a combination of work and family commitments meant I had to push it a few days. You will be getting your next newsletter as usual on Sunday.
However I am very glad I did because it meant I could dedicate most of this newsletter to breaking down a series of interviews given by Reform’s Wales spokesman Oliver Lewis. They were so illuminating and, frankly, left me in such a state of anger, that I am delighted I can now articulate my thoughts here.
First, I would like to share a few words from our excellent sponsor who is so important to supporting this newsletter.
This newsletter is sponsored by Hello Starling. A proudly Welsh company, Hello Starling plan and buy media, backed by data, which is designed to get maximum attention and measurable results. They specialise in getting eyes on your organisation, product and website. If you are looking to get a return on investment, a change in perception, more visitors, more subscriptions, a bigger audience or a happier audience, I highly recommend you check them out here. In doing so you help support this newsletter.
Before we dive into Reform we need to reveal my favourite predictions for 2025.
Best reader prediction
A few weeks ago I made my predictions for what we can expect in Welsh politics in 2025. I then invited readers to submit their own with my favourite winning six months complementary paid subscription to the newsletter.
There is an honourable mention that made me chuckle from Garth Ap Thomas who, after I predicted that Andrew RT Davies would join Reform, suggested:
I bet Andrew RT Davies was just about to send off his application letter to Reform, then heard about your predictions and to spite you he's now decided to put off joining Nigel Farage's gang for 12 months.
However, I can’t help but feel it would be a bit too egotistical to award a subscription to The Will Hayward Newsletter to someone for simply including me in their prediction.
Therefore I am pleased to announce that the winner comes from Jack Wands who emailed with the following prediction:
“Following a successful reduction in waiting list times in the first six months of 2025 and due to a fear of Reform funding coming from over the pond, Eluned Morgan takes the unprecedented step of calling an early Senedd election hoping to shore up Labour support and avoid any further erosion.”
He added: “This is quite tricky because I think this wouldn’t get rid of the 2026 election, but I’ll stick with it anyway”.
I really like this as a pick. Personally I don’t think it is likely to happen but I can see how the situation could come about.
Having had conversations with the First Minister about Reform, she absolutely sees Farage’s limited company as the biggest threat Welsh Labour faces. While Reform will most likely win significant seats in the Senedd, it is clear to me that when it comes to taking Labour voters, Plaid Cymru is far more of a threat to Eluned Morgan’s party.
Jack is also right to say that if there was a Senedd election in 2025 there would still be another one in 2026.
Reform - A wolf in wolf’s clothing
Over the last few days both WalesOnline and BBC Wales have published interviews with Reform’s Wales spokesman, Oliver Lewis.
Mr Lewis is an interesting fellow. He is articulate and pleasant to speak to. I interviewed him at the Reform Party conference in Newport a few months back and was struck by how…well…sane he sounded. He was making a clear attempt to genuinely focus on Wales which is more than can be said for every other Reform politician I spoke to.
With polling this week suggesting that UK wide Reform LTD are just a point behind Labour, it is right and proper that we thoroughly scrutinise what they have actually said and done rather than simply swallow whichever narrative their leader (or should that be owner?) Nigel Farage has decided to try and dominate the news agenda with.
While doing this I found myself getting increasingly angry, because it is clear to me that Reform sees success in Cymru as a vehicle for their own wider advancement, rather than any real desire to make Wales better. Let me take you through the key points.
Forming the next Government and winning 40 seats? A claim that SHOULD change the narrative.
Since the party was formed (or perhaps that should be 'incorporated' given that it is actually a company) they have been saying that they could be the official opposition in Wales after 2026. When asked for details on policy the likes of Farage would only say “we are a new political party, you can’t expect us to have all the answers yet”.
However, Mr Lewis is now saying that the party could form the next Welsh Government and win up to 40 seats (which in a proportional parliament of 96 politicians would be quite a feat).
I am not going to get into the probability of this happening, but the point I do want to make is that if they are really suggesting they are going to form the next government in Wales, they need to start being scrutinised accordingly.
You can’t at the same time say “we will form the next government” while also ducking questions because you’re recently formed.
With every subsequent part of this newsletter I want you to bear in mind that Reform LTD is saying that they will form the next government after 2026. This leads me on to…
No leader till AFTER the Senedd election?!
Mr Lewis told the BBC that the party had no plans to elect a Welsh leader.
He said:
"Nigel is going to play a very big part in the Senedd campaign. He's far more popular than the leaders of the other parties in Wales.
"Our present working principle is that once we have a caucus in the Senedd, once we have our 20, 30, or hopefully 40 members in the Welsh Parliament they will then select a leader on day one.”
Are you kidding me? You are going to tell the people of Wales to vote you into office but only decide who their First Minister will be after the election?
Nothing sums up how Wales is not seen as a separate entity and nation in its own right as the fact that the party won’t even name a Welsh leader.
The reasons that they don’t want to name one are obvious. This is Nigel Farage’s company/party and he doesn’t want any other person to rival him. In addition, they know that none of their current crop has remotely the profile of their director/leader.
Whatever their rationale, the decision not to name a Welsh leader makes it far harder for the Welsh public to scrutinise the man or woman who could be their First Minister. Reform are asking to lead Wales without saying who will be doing the leading. A disgraceful state of affairs.
Any chance of a policy?
If Reform is indeed the government in waiting they claim to be, it doesn't feel unreasonable to ask for them to give us something in the way of policies.
Now you might argue that given we are 17 months out for the election it is unfair to expect them to have a full manifesto. I completely reject this.
As I write this I have just returned from a Plaid Cymru press conference where they laid out in pretty comprehensive detail what they would be doing within the Welsh NHS to try and tackle waiting lists if they were to be successful in 2026.
Now I am not saying whether the Plaid plan is good or bad (I will be covering it in the next newsletter on Sunday), but at least it exists. Reform went into the last General Election without a manifesto and as of yet have failed to put forward much in the way of concrete plans for what they would do in Wales if they won in 2026.
You can see how I kept asking Nigel Farage for a single policy regarding Wales in this interview and he simply wouldn’t give me one:
The public, journalists and opposition politicians need to be relentless in demanding to know what specifically Reform’s plan is and, if they provide one, rigorously scrutinising its merits.
Mr Lewis has provided some insights to his view on potential directions the party could go regarding policy but I remain incredibly sceptical about whether this will be adopted by the wider party/company.
He has argued for a “fundamental reset of our institutions and our political culture” - whatever the hell that means.
He also suggested that the Welsh Government could use its limited taxation powers to “take one pence off every rate of income tax” adding “in one stroke we make Wales an attractive place to move for entrepreneurs and change-makers from all over Britain”.
This is all very well, but there is no indication on what this would mean for Welsh Government budgets or projections for how many “change-makers” that would attract. As an aside I have found almost without exception that any person who describes themself as a “change-maker” to be an absolute bellend.
He also indicated that his party would look to scrap the "madness" of Net Zero. The fact that it is 2025, half the Valleys is still reeling from biblical flooding and Los Angeles is burning, yet we still have politicians dismissing net zero is nauseating. I can’t even be bothered to explain why, just read my last newsletter.
“Not about immigration” - Rubbish
One of the most interesting things Mr Lewis spoke about was the attitude the party will have to immigration in the run up to 2026.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to The Will Hayward Newsletter to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.