Updates of the Senedd election
All of the Senedd Election results
Reporting by Will Hayward, Ryan O’Neill, Marcus Hughes, Kyle Bright, Lottie Keen, Teresa Delfino, Annelise Furniss, Jack Davies, Morgan Tucker and Harvey John
This newsletter was updated over Friday, May 8 as we got breaking news and stories from the Welsh election.
9.30pm: A historic day for Welsh politics
Well, what a day. Hundreds of thousands of votes counted, 96 seats filled and a whole lot of caffeine and snacks.
Welsh politics as we know it has changed. Labour’s dynasty is over. The two traditionally strongest parties have been unseated by Plaid and Reform, two parties who have never been near power in Wales but who will now dominate a very different looking Senedd.
We’re finishing up our live coverage but we will be bringing you plenty more to digest about the result in the coming days.
We will also be bringing you a detailed breakdown of all the winners and losers from the election, how each party has done and the main takeaways from the election.
A huge thank you to all of you who have followed us today. We simply wouldn’t have been able to cover the election the way we have without your support for this Newsletter.
Thanks again,
Will and the Newsletter team
7.40pm: What happens now?
We now know what the next Senedd looks like in terms of seats.
Here is how it will look:
It has been a very successful day for Plaid, who are now the biggest party in Wales, but do not have an overall majority.
We have written a fresh newsletter breaking down what happens now, and who might form the next Welsh Government. You can read it here.
7.10pm: Reaction from some of the parties
We have spoken to people in some of the parties after the results, and clearly some are happier than others.
There is clearly some deflation in the Green camp. They have come away with 2 MSs, their first Senedd members. Polling back in March predicted they might get 10.
Our reporter Lottie Keen spoke to their candidate Amy Nicholass in Ceredigion Penfro, who said:
“We will be back. It’s a sense that people really care about environmental justice. I will say we will never know how many people voted Plaid instead of Green.”
In Swansea, our reporter Harvey John approached Reform’s unsuccessful candidate Wayne Parsons, for reaction, but he told us he was “no longer a candidate” and to “contact the local branch.”
Huw Thomas, the leader of Cardiff Council who has been elected for Labour in Caerdydd Penarth, told our reporter Jack Davies it had been a tough day .
“It’s a really bad result, there’s not getting away from that,” he said.
“I think we have to look very closely at why we’ve lost in the way that we have and to the extent we have and there are lessons for the party in Wales and lessons for the party in the UK to learn, and I think they have to be learned quickly.”
“Plaid, credit to them, they’ve had a great campaign that’s really fed into people’s fears about reform and they have really cut through with to stop Reform you have to make plaid and they made a reality of that.”
“I think we have got to recognise, Keir Starmer, unfairly in my view, there are people who absolutely lothe him and I’ve said on the record already that he and his team need to think very, very quickly about the political strategy that addresses that.”
After being re-elected in Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg, the Welsh Tories’ Andrew RT Davies had this to say:
“It is an honour to be able to represent the two constituencies I grew up in. It has been a tough fight for the Welsh Tories. It’s up to us now to pick up the pieces and listen to what the electors are telling us. I very much hope we can find some common ground as parties. Political differences should be left in the Senedd.”
How it happened: Ceredigion Penfro
Lottie Keen
Ceridigion Penfro
Plaid 3, Reform 2, Conservative 1
The headline story of the count at Llandysul was a woman who stayed in the shadows for most of the day.
Departing First Minister Eluned Morgan was notably absent from most of the proceedings, appearing only an hour before the declaration of results began, looking utterly disheartened though doing everything possible to hide it.
Labour secured a meagre 7.2% of the vote. As Ms Morgan admitted herself, this was a “catastrophic result for Welsh Labour” that was echoed in all constituencies across the country, and she mourned that “the age of two-party dominance is dead”.
Despite “one hundred years of winning in Wales” being ripped to shreds by these results, the party stalwart received a heartfelt appraisal from Plaid shoo-in Elin Jones, for her commitment to Wales as the Senedd’s first female leader.
While she said that “the party will have to take a really hard look at itself to understand the depth of the challenge” it faces, she was unwavering in her loyalty to the PM when asked if she felt Keir Starmer was at fault, shouldering the blame for the party’s failures in Wales alone.
The school gym in which the results were disclosed was filled with an air of respect and slight sadness for Ms Morgan as she left the stage for the final time, resigning as leader of her party.
It is little surprise though that a party that promises to put Wales first succeeded in the sprawling constituency.
Plaid were overjoyed but not surprised by their win, but seemed resolute and raring to enter the Siambr to “fix” what Labour have left behind.
Elsewhere, the Greens’ morning optimism slowly disintegrated throughout the day.
The party clearly expected much better than they got, and lamented the “two-horse race message” pushed by Plaid.
Despite a new system that promises to halt tactical voting, the Greens felt that many potential voters had been swayed towards Plaid in order to block Reform from getting seats.
Reform were quiet in Llandysul and didn’t speak to the press much until their victory was assured. Their number one candidate Suzanne Archibald also did not show face much at the count, perhaps to emulate Baroness Morgan, but they seemed happy with their two seat gain.
6.50pm: Eluned Morgan’s parting words
Let’s have a look again at Eluned Morgan’s reaction after she lost her seat in Ceredigion Penfro.
In a speech onstage, here’s some of what she said:
She called Labour’s result “catastrophic”
“I take full responsibility for this result”
She announced she is stepping down as Welsh Labour leader
“The age of two party dominance is at an end”
“The people of Wales have rejected us”
She said serving as First Minister “has been the greatest privilege of my life.”
She called on UK Labour to “go back to being the party of the working class” and “need to change course”
How it happened: Casnewydd Islwyn
Teresa Delfino
Casnewydd Islwyn
Plaid 2, Reform 2, Labour 1, Conservative 1
People at the Casnewydd Islwyn count anticipated a battle between Plaid Cymru and Reform. Polls placed them neck-and-neck, though the attitude on the ground was miles apart.
Reform were banking on a hefty majority that would secure them three seats in the constituency of the party’s leader in Wales Dan Thomas, who topped their list of candidates. He arrived just as the declaration was coming in at 2pm.
They ultimately failed to secure the sixth seat, which went to a tearful Natasha Asghar, who topped the Welsh Conservatives’ list.
The rumour of an appearance from Reform UK leader Nigel Farage was quashed hours before the call.
Plaid Cymru ultimately seemed happiest at the end of the day after taking two seats. Peredur Owen Griffiths, Plaid Cymru’s number one candidate, said: “It feels good that the people of Casnewydd Islwyn have put their faith in us.
“It means that people have voted for change, but they’ve also voted for that positive, forward-thinking hopeful message that we’ve put together in the manifesto, that hopefully we’ll be able to deliver if we form a government.”
The day started with a sense of paranoia across the Geraint Thomas National Velodrome of Wales; Reform and Labour candidates avoided most interviews before the declaration was made.
But who would blame the latter? Ahead of the election, Labour incumbents Jayne Bryant and Rhianon Passmore, who had both sat as Members of the Senedd since 2016, were projected to lose their seats.
Jayne Bryant, who topped Labour’s list for the seat, ultimately held onto her job, a saving grace in the “catastrophic defeat” described later by Eluned Morgan.
Team Labour kept Ms Bryant guarded across the day, her team battling an army of journalists keen to capture the events about to befall her party.
After the declaration, Ms Bryant said: “I think there’s lots of things for us to reflect on locally but also there’s the bigger picture as well.
“Sometimes there’s waves in politics, and I think we have to look at that. There are some really good colleagues who won’t be coming back, and I think they’ve worked so hard for their communities as well.”
6.15pm: The last constituency has declared
We have had the final results in Gwynedd Maldwyn, the last constituency to declare.
Here are those and the last few before that.
Result in Gwynedd Maldwyn
Plaid - 4
Reform - 2
The new MSs are:
1. Plaid Cymru - Siân Gwenllian
2. Reform UK - Andrew Griffin
3. Plaid Cymru - Mabon ap Gwynfor
4. Plaid Cymru - Beca Brown
5. Reform UK - Claire Johnson-Wood
6. Plaid Cymru - Elwyn Vaughan
How it happened: Gwyr Abertawe
Harvey John
Gwŷr Abertawe
Plaid 3, Reform 2, Labour 1
Plaid claimed three of the six seats on offer - with two of them going to a husband and wife.
Gwyn Williams (first on the Plaid list) tearfully hugged his wife Safa Elhassan (second on the list) as the declarations were made that the pair had both been elected to the Senedd.
It was one of the most emotional moments in a lengthy day of election counting.
Mr Williams also practises as an ophthalmologist at Singleton Hospital, and he plans to continue to practise one day a week.
He was relieved and surprised at the three-seat victory. “I was shocked. Gratitude towards the people of Swansea.”
Mike Hedges was the only Labour candidate to win a seat in the constituency.
Early speculation had the Greens, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats fighting it out for the sixth seat with rumours of a recount.
The Greens’ Chris Evans said he was disappointed not to be elected, but that he was proud of the campaign and pledged to continue his work in the council. “We’ve had a fantastic team, win or lose today I’m incredibly proud of the team,” he said.
Multiple attempts were made to speak to Reform at the count, but they declined.
Wayne Parsons, who was third on the Reform list, was approached for comment but noted that he was “no longer a candidate” and any comments should go through Reform UK HQ.
When pressed on if he would continue to support Reform, he refused to answer.
Francesca O’Brien and Steven Rodaway, who were elected first and second on Reform’s list, made every effort to avoid speaking to the Newsletter.
Result in Gwyr Abertawe
Plaid - 3
Reform - 2
Labour - 1
The new MSs are:
1. Plaid Cymru - Gwyn Williams
2. Reform UK - Francesca O’Brien
3. Plaid Cymru - Safa Elhassan
4. Welsh Labour - Mike Hedges
5. Reform UK - Steven Rodaway
6. Plaid Cymru - John Davies
Previous MSs who have lost their seats:
Tom Giffard (Tories)
5.55pm: Welsh politics has changed.
At present the Conservatives and Labour are on the same vote share (11%).
If you had told the Tories 5 years ago that in 2026 they would get the same number of votes in Wales they would have been delighted.
How it happened: Caerdydd Penarth
Jack Davies
Caerdydd Penarth
Plaid 3, Reform 1, Labour 1, Green 1
In the shadow of Cardiff City Stadium, it was hard not to draw comparisons between the Bluebirds’ recent resurgence and the Green Party’s promotion to the Senedd.
Leader Anthony Slaughter was keen to reiterate the seismic nature of his party’s “historic breakthrough”, having himself stood unsuccessfully for election 11 times before securing his party’s first seat in Wales on Friday.
I expected Green cheers to dominate the emptied-out ice rink, where the results were announced, only for their thunder to be stolen by a trio of Plaid Cymru candidates.
“In the UK, in Wales, and in Caerdydd Penarth particularly, the electoral map has changed forever,” Anna Brychan, comfortably elected in first place, told the crowd.
She added: “The people of Cardiff Penarth have put their faith in three Plaid Cymru representatives – three women, all with different life experiences and all determined to do everything in our power to repay your faith in us.”
With polls long predicting a thrashing for Welsh Labour, it is easy to overlook just how monumental defeat here is for the party, which has dominated every election in the constituency for the past 27 years.
It was certainly not lost on one man, Cardiff council leader and recipient of the constituency’s sixth seat, Huw Thomas.
“It’s a really bad result, there’s no getting away from that,” he said. “Plaid, credit to them, have run a great campaign that really fed into people’s fears about Reform. They cut through with the message that, to stop Reform, you had to vote Plaid, and they made a reality of that.
“There are lessons for the party in Wales and lessons for the party in the UK, and they need to be learned quickly.”
While perhaps premature, it is difficult not to read into the unexpectedly high 56.85% turnout here, a sense that many progressive voters were motivated by a desire to ward off Reform in the constituency, although finishing second with 15,525 votes is nothing to scoff at.
The Greens’ rising star and second-on-the-list candidate Tessa Marshall frequently took to social media to frame the battle for the fifth and sixth seats as a straight contest between the Greens and Reform.
Voters instead settled on another option: Plaid’s Leticia Gonzalez, a newcomer who, alongside fellow candidate Marshall, epitomises both the changing face of their parties and the Senedd.
5.54pm: Result in Fflint Wrecsam
Reform - 2
Plaid - 2
Tories - 1
Labour - 1
The new MSs are:
Cristiana Emsley (Reform)
Carrie Harper (Plaid Cymru)
Nigel Williams (Reform)
Marc Jones (Plaid Cymru)
Sam Rowlands (Conservative)
Ken Skates (Labour)
5.50pm: Result in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd
Reform - 3
Plaid - 2
Lib Dems - 1
The new MSs are:
James Evans (Ref)
Sioned Williams (Plaid)
Ian Charles McIntosh (Ref)
Rebeca Phillips (Plaid)
Jane Dodds (Lib Dem)
David Terence Mills (Ref)
5.47pm: Result in Clwyd
Reform - 3
Plaid - 2
Tories - 1
The new MSs are:
Adrian Mason (Reform)
Llyr Gruffudd (Plaid Cymru)
Darren Millar (Conservatives)
Louise Emery (Reform)
Becca Martin (Plaid Cymru)
Thomas Montgomery (Reform)
Lost seats:
Hannah Blythyn (Lab)
Gareth Davies (Tories)
5.45pm: Result in Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf
Plaid - 3
Reform -1
Labour - 1
Green - 1
The new MSs are:
Dafydd Trystan Davies (Plaid)
Cai Parry-Jones (Ref)
Zaynub Akbar (Plaid)
Shav Taj (Lab_
Nick Carter (Plaid)
Paul Rock (Green)
5.15pm: Result in Ceredigion Penfro
Plaid - 3
Reform - 2
Tories - 1
The new MSs are:
Anna Nicholl (Plaid Cymru)
Elin Jones (Plaid Cymru)
Kerry Ferguson (Plaid Cymru)
Paul Marr (Reform)
Susan Archibald (Reform)
Paul Davies (Conservatives)
Lost seats:
Eluned Morgan (Labour)
Samuel Kurtz (Tories)
5pm: The First Minister has lost her seat
The result of Ceredigion Penfro has come in and the First Minister Eluned Morgan has lost her seat.
This is huge. The FM looked downcast as the results were announced in the count centre.
In her speech she said she “takes responsibility” for Labour’s performance in the election and would be resigning as leader of her party.
Will’s analysis:
“Say what you want about Eluned Morgan, but to suggest the Labour result is just down to her is just wrong.
She was dealt a terrible hand, both from the group in the Senedd she inherited and by the relentless apathy of her collegues in London.
She didn’t take a healthy Welsh Labour Party and make it sick.
While there were huge shortcomings in how she led the Welsh Government, the seeds of today have been laid for decades.
If Labour try and pin this all on her they will continue in their spiral.”
We have written a newsletter analysing the FM losing her seat. You can read it here.
4.40pm: Labour MS who has lost his seat says Labour defeat ‘manufactured in Downing Street’
One of Welsh Labour’s long-standing MSs Alun Davies has lost his seat in Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni. He had been in the Senedd for 15 years.
Our reporter Morgan Tucker was at the scene where Mr Davies after the declaration. This is what he had to say:
“It has been a difficult day for the party. It has been a historic turning point for welsh Labour.
“Labour has clearly lost the trust of the people from whom we were born. This is also a defeat that had been manufactured in Downing Street.
‘It is clear to me from the conversations that I have had over the last few months that Downing Street has walked away from the people we seek to represent. It is clear to me that there needs to be fundamental change, not simply in the policies and politics, but also the personnel and I hope that my words are heard across in London.”
4.23pm: Result in Bangor Conwy Mon
Plaid - 3
Reform - 2
Tories - 1
The new MSs are:
Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid Cymru)
Helen Jenner (Reform)
Mair Rowlands (Plaid Cymru)
Elfed Williams (Plaid Cymru)
John Clark (Reform)
Janet Finch Saunders (Conservatives)
4.15pm: Result in Afan Ogwr Rhondda
Plaid - 3
Reform - 2
Labour - 1
The new MSs are:
Sera Evans (Plaid)
Benjamin McKenna (Reform)
Alun Cox (Plaid)
Seve Bayliss (Reform)
Huw Irranca-Davies (Labour)
Elyn Stephens (Plaid)
Lost seats:
Buffy Williams (Labour)
David Rees (Labour)
4.08pm: Result in Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr
Plaid - 3
Reform - 2
Labour - 1
The new MSs are:
Heledd Fychan (Plaid)
Jason O’Connell (Ref)
Lis McLean (Plaid)
David Hughes (Reform)
Sara Crowley (Plaid)
Vicki Howells (Labour)
4.06pm: Mike Hedges tells us next Senedd election “could be next year”
In an interview with our reporter Harvey John in Swansea, veteran Senedd member Mike Hedges said he doesn’t know why Labour has lost support from the electorate.
“If I had known why it was a low turnout for Labour I would have done something to stop it being a low turnout for Labour,” he said.
He then speculated that another election could take place next year if a new government couldn’t pass a budget.
Mr Hedges said he would have preferred not to see the change in the electoral system, and criticised the larger 16 constituencies.
He is first on the Labour list for the Gŵyr Abertawe – where we still await a result.
3.57pm: Result in Caerdydd Penarth
Plaid - 3
Reform - 1
Lab - 1
Green - 1
The new MSs are:
Anna Brychan (Plaid)
Kiera Marshall (Plaid)
Joe Martin (Ref)
Anthony Slaughter (Green)
Leticia Estabarribia (Plaid)
Huw Thomas (Lab)
How it happened: Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni
Morgan Tucker
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni
Plaid 3, Reform 3
The race for the six Senedd seats on offer in Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni was always expected to go to the wire, but few will have expected probably the most shocking moment of the day would come from a speech made by one of the losing candidates.
At early doors, the Plaid Cymru contingent seemed confident, almost buoyant. Second on their list, Lindsay Whittle, who famously triumphed in the Caerphilly by-election last year, was bullish, telling us that Plaid would “easily” get three seats here and hinted they could possibly win more.
Reform seemed more tight-lipped and bristly, but whether that was because they were worried about the result, or because they aren’t fans of this newsletter, as one party official put it, was unclear.
Veteran Labour Blaenau Gwent MS Alun Davies would, a few months ago, have believed he had a fair chance of grabbing a seat here, but from the moment he arrived he seemed pessimistic, with the air of an already defeated man about him.
With the votes in this constituency having been counted and verified overnight, events in Caerphilly Leisure Centre seemed to be moving very quickly towards a conclusion. By 1.30pm, everything seemed set for an imminent announcement.
But there was to be a twist in the tale. After being shown the figures, Labour called for a recount. Voting totals showed they would be sending no candidates from the area to the Senedd.
But the re-count changed nothing, and instead, it was Plaid’s Delyth Jewell, Lindsay Whittle and Niamh Salkeld who took spots one, three and five, and Reform’s Llŷr Powell, Catherine Cullen and Joshua Kim taking spots two, four and six.
It was Alun Davies’ bombshell leaving speech, however, that grabbed the headlines.
He said: “This is a defeat that has been manufactured in Downing Street. It is clear to me, from the conversations that I’ve had over the last few months, that Downing Street has walked away from the people that we seek to represent.
“It is clear to me that there needs to be fundamental change, not simply in the policies and the politics, but also the personnel.”
You could feel the air sucked out of the room as the gravity of what Davies was saying hit home with the crowd, and what direction the Welsh Labour Party goes from here remains unclear.
3.55pm: Result in Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni
Plaid - 3
Reform - 3
The new MSs are:
Delyth Jewell (Plaid)
Llyr Powell (Reform)
Lindsey Whittle (Plaid)
Catherine Cullen (Reform)
Niamh Salkeld (Plaid)
Joshua Kim (Reform)
Lost seats:
Alun Davies (Labour)
Will’s analysis:
”Nothing sums up how this system favours the large parties like this result.
Llyr Powell finally gets his Senedd seat after losing at the Caerphilly byelection next last.
Back in 2021 Labour won almost half the votes in this area. Now they can’t even win one seat. Alun Davies losing his seat will shock many. Labour sought a recount and apparently their vote went down.”
3.40pm: Result in Sir Gaerfyrddin
Plaid - 3
Reform - 3
The new MSs are:
Cefin Campbell (Plaid)
Gareth Beer (Reform)
Nerys Evans (Plaid)
Carmelo Colasanto (Reform)
Adam Price (Plaid)
Sarah Edwards (Reform
Will’s analysis:
Plaid was not far off winning a fourth seat here. That will be gutting for them as they have the same amount of seats as Reform after winning thousands more votes.
Labour were well off winning.
Former Plaid leader Adam Price looked in real trouble when the lists were announced last year but he has comfortably got back in the Senedd in the end.
Reform had done very well in Llanelli in the General Election.
3.30pm: The First Minister has arrived
Eluned Morgan has arrived at the count centre in Llandysul.
We aren’t far from a declaration in Ceredigion Penfro. Given it is looking increasingly likely she is going to lose her seat, it’s probably no surprise to see she has left it late to arrive.
How it happened: Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg:
Annelise Furniss
Pen y Bont Bro Morgannwg
Plaid 2, Reform 2, Labour 1, Conservative 1
It was a two-horse race in Pen y Bont Bro Morgannwg with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK predicted a near equal share of the vote – a prediction that ended up ringing true.
Plaid Cymru secured two seats in Pen y Bont Bro Morgannwg, with a vote share of 33.5%. Reform UK also walked away with two seats, and a vote share of 30.1%, leaving Welsh Labour and the Welsh Conservatives with one seat each.
Plaid’s Mark Hooper placed first with a promise of ensuring Wales remained a “free and tolerant society”, followed by Reform’s Sarah Cooper-Lesadd in the number two spot, and Plaid candidate Sarah Rees in third.
Andrew RT Davies took home the fourth seat, perhaps to his relief with the news looming over him of Eluned Morgan’s imminent loss and the clear desire from Welsh voters for a new type of politician.
“It’s been a tough fight for the Welsh Tories. It’s up to us now to pick up the pieces and listen to what the electors are telling us,” said Mr Davies in his acceptance speech.
Reform UK’s Dr Gareth Thomas won the constituency’s fifth seat, and incumbent Welsh Labour MS Sarah Murphy dragged behind in sixth place to become one of only nine Labour candidates to secure a seat in the Senedd.
3.24pm: Result in Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg:
Plaid - 2 seats
Reform - 2
Tories - 1
Labour - 1
The new MSs are:
1. Mark Hooper (Plaid)
2. Sarah Cooper Lesadd (Ref)
3. Sarah Rees (Plaid)
4. Andrew RT Davies (Con)
5. Gareth Thomas (Ref)
6. Sarah Murphy (Lab)
Incumbents who have lost their seat:
Luke Fletcher (Plaid)
Altaf Hussain (Con)
Will’s analysis:
This area was supposed to be a big target area for Reform but it has certainly been one of their most chaotic. Their lead candidate stepped down after an apparent Nazi salute and two others also left the party.
Andrew RT Davies will be chuffed with this result with the former Tory leader likely benefitting from Reform’s volunteer base eroding in the area.
We say goodbye to two previous MSs. Luke Fletcher had been leading for Plaid on the economy and has lost, having been placed third on the list. I wouldn’t be surprised if he got a nice gig at the new Welsh Development Agency. Tory Altaf Hussain has also lost his seat.
3.05pm: We have our first result
Result in Casnewydd Islwyn:
Reform - 2 seats
Plaid Cymru - 2
Labour - 1
Tories - 1
The new MSs are:
1. Dan Thomas (Ref)
2. Peredur Owen Griffiths (Plaid)
3. Art Wright (Ref)
4. Lyn Ackerman (Plaid)
5. Jayne Bryant (Lab)
6. Natasha Asghar (Con)
Incumbents who have lost their seat:
Rhianon Passmore (Lab)
Will’s analysis:
This will be a real disappointment to Reform. Though they got the most votes, they lost out on the 6th seat to the Tories. This is one of the key target seats and where their Welsh leader Dan Thomas was standing. They were really hoping for three seats here.
Natasha Asghar from the Tories will be delighted.
2.55pm: Some of the seats are incredibly close
We are hearing on the ground that the fifth and sixth seats in some of the constituencies are incredibly close.
A recount is taking place in Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni, where there is understood to be only around 100 votes in it for the final seat.
2.45pm: Labour candidate says Plaid have ‘borrowed voters’ in success
Our reporter Teresa Delfino has spoken to Chris Carter, who is third on Labour’s list in Casnewydd Islwyn.
Asked what his party would need to learn from what is likely to be a terrible day at the polls, he said:
“At the moment I would say that Plaid Cymru have borrowed voters, and Labour voters have leant Plaid Cymru in this constituency and probably across Wales as well, I’d expect.
“There’s learnings to take away from every election defeat, as I’ve said, Labour have been in power in Wales for over 100 years. The reason for that is that before the Labour party came along, this country really had nothing. We didn’t have employment rights, we didn’t have free healthcare, we didn’t even have education. We still had children in work, so what you have to remember is what the Labour Party is for, and its history.”
He added:
“We have to gather ourselves up from this defeat and look forward to the future as well. There are learnings to take from that, but we have to come back together as a party in order to look forward, I believe, over the course of the next four years. As I said, there’s a lot of borrowed votes out there, and we’re looking to tackle that over the course of the next four years.
2.25pm: Several senior Labour members at risk of losing their seats
Some Labour sources are telling me that Ken Skates, Sarah Murphy, Buffy Williams and Alun Davies are all at risk of losing their seats.
The party have already put out an official statement confirming they expect to win only 10 seats. They previously had 30.
2.20pm: Plaid are looking confident in the capital
Plaid think they are getting 3 seats in Caerdydd Penarth.
They said: "We hope and are confident this could be replicated throughout Wales. If that's the case it will be a great day for Plaid Cymru and a fantastic day for Wales."
Jack Davies at the Cardiff count has also spoken to their candidate Anna Brychan, who said she isn’t allowed to speak about the final tally but is “very hopeful of a very good result today.”
“It’s absolutely wonderful to be Plaid and be thinking of government because Plaid is 100 years old, and I think this is a moment Plaid has been working towards for a very long time.”
“It’s a moment we’ve been preparing for arguably all our lives, some of us, so it’s very exciting and a privilege to.”
2.10pm: Green Party leader ‘fairly confident’ he will be elected
Our reporter Jack Davies has spoken to Green Party leader Anthony Slaughter at the count centre in Cardiff.
Here is what he said:
“We’re going to see a historic result for the greens today, we’re going to get greens elected to the Senedd.”
“I think we are fairly confident that I will get elected in this seat, as confident as you can be on that. We are still pushing to get that sixth seat, polling does show that that will be between Green and Reform.”
“Forming a group is the ambition; we will see soon enough.”
“We will have to see what the numbers are and whether Plaid wants to talk to us, we will always listen as it’s important that parties share values and come together on issues of common ground because the challenges facing us are so crucial.”
1.40pm: Welsh Labour predict they will win just 10 seats
Welsh Labour have put put a statement saying they expect to return just 10 MSs in the election.
The party say they “expect to lose several hardworking and respected Members” and are “deeply disappointed.”
Welsh Labour had 30 of the 60 seats in the previous Senedd. 10 seats would be a catastrophic result.
Perhaps tellingly, the party added:
“Eluned will take responsibility for this result. She has been the heart and soul of this campaign, leading from the front and never shying away from a tough fight.”
1.20pm: Speculation that Farage will not be visiting Newport
We are hearing reports that Nigel Farage might not be making an appearance in Newport, due to the feeling Reform are going to come second to Plaid across Wales.
It had been speculated this morning that he would make an appearance in the constituency where Dan Thomas is standing.
A Reform UK spokesman tells us “there was never any planned visits to Newport.”
12.55pm: When we are expecting each result
We’re expecting declarations for each constituency roughly at the times below:
Afan Ogwr Rhondda - 3.30pm
Bangor Conwy Mon - 3pm
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni - 3pm
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd - 3pm
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf - 3pm
Caerdydd Penarth - 3pm
Casnewydd Islwyn - 2pm
Ceredigion Penfro - 3pm
Clwyd - 3pm
Fflint Wrecsam - 5.30pm
Gwyr Abertawe - 2pm
Gwynedd Maldwyn - 3.30pm
Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg - 3pm
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr - 4pm
Sir Fynwy Torfaen - 2pm
Sir Gaerfyrddin - 4pm
Here is how things are looking around the count centres this morning.
12.45pm: We are expecting the first results shortly
There seems to be some increasing activity in Caerphilly Leisure Centre, where they are counting votes for Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni.
Our reporter Morgan Tucker has been told they are expecting to announce the results at around 1pm.
We have just seen Llyr Powell, Reform’s top candidate there, arrive at the count.
The big names to watch here are Plaid’s Delyth Jewell and Lindsey Whittle, and Welsh Labour’s Alun Davies.
Plaid are expected to do quite well here, with the most recent projections suggesting they could win 3 of the 6 seats.
12.20pm: The mood within Labour is grim
We have been trying to speak to Welsh Labour members across the counts this morning, but it is proving difficult.
The party have refused to speak to press at the Ceredigion count, and First Minister Eluned Morgan, who is in serious danger of losing her seats, will not be taking questions today, we have been told.
Whether she keeps her seat or not, the First Minister will make a speech at the Ceridigion Penfro count, but no press are to speak to her after.
Reporters were also not allowed to take photos of the First Minister this morning and were refused for a chat by one of the Labour candidates we approached.
Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies has told the BBC in a downbeat interview this morning that Welsh Labour is not going to form the next Welsh Government.
It’s clear the party is expecting a pretty catastrophic result.
12.05pm: Reform are refusing to talk to us
We’re running into trouble with Reform at the Caerdydd Penarth count, where they are refusing to talk to us due to instructions from “higher-up”.
Our reporter Jack Davies at the count tried to chat with first-place candidate Joe Martin and third-place candidate Robert Thomas when their election agent stopped him point-blank.
When we asked why, Reform’s election agent Zak Weaver said it was Reform policy that they would not engage with the newsletter.
When questioned on how high up these orders came from, Mr Weaver said “the party”.
Weaver was more than happy to let Mr Martin talk to other outlets, including an interview with WalesOnline in which he predicted three seats for Reform, an unlikely result by any measure.
Meanwhile, at the Caerphilly count, one Reform candidate told our reporter Morgan Tucker that she wouldn’t be speaking to us simply because she was not a fan of the newsletter.
11.40am: Greens telling us the new voting system has been challenging
Some of the Green Party’s candidates have been speaking to Lottie Keen, who is at the Ceredigion Penfro count for us.
Amy Nicholass, who is top of their list there, said helping voters understand the new voting system has been a challenge for the Greens on the doors as much as actually explaining their plans.
She said: “There’s a floor in proportional representation because people don’t understand it. When we doorstep we have to explain the D’Hondt method to everyone.
“When we are doorstepping we don’t have time to talk about our manifesto. The number six seat for a small party like the Greens is very competitive.”
“[It is] an advantage for bigger parties that people do not understand proportional representation. People will say ‘I am not voting this time because I want to vote for a person, not a party.’
“Change is making people tired and anxious.”
11.15: The current mood within Plaid
We are hearing from a number of sources that Plaid are pleased about how things have gone for them.
Our reporters on the ground in the count centres have spoken to sources within the party who say they are quietly confident about how the count is going for them.
Other parties seem to have noticed this too - a Reform source we spoke to in Caerphilly, where they are counting the Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni constituency votes, said there are some areas coming in where the Plaid vote seems higher than what they saw on the doors.
It’s early yet, but the indications from within Plaid are that this has been a good night for them.
10.56am: Reports Nigel Farage could make an appearance
There are rumours Nigel Farage is going to make an appearance in Newport, where counting is well underway for the Casnewydd Islwyn constituency.
This is where Reform’s Welsh leader Dan Thomas is standing, and where the party are expected to pick up a few seats, so it’s no surprise that Farage might show up if things look like they are going well.
Casnewydd Islwyn is among those expected to declare its results earliest, around 2pm.
08.47am: Early indications on turnout
Reports we’re getting across Wales suggest turnout does appear to be up compared to previous Senedd elections. We should stress that the official figures aren’t yet available.
Turnout was its highest ever in 2021. Based on valid votes, the turnout was 46.6%. ‘Valid votes’ excludes spoilt or disallowed ballot papers.
Senedd elections have never seen a turnout of more than half of the electorate. While the 2021 election had the highest turnout since devolution began, it fell short of 50%.
Here’s the turnout in previous years:
6.23am: Reform and Plaid battling in Newport and Caerphilly according to early reports
Only a few seats were validating overnight (verification is in the first stage where they are basically working out “how many pieces of paper are there?” as opposed to “who did people vote for on those pieces of paper”).
We are getting some initial reports from these counts (remember that this is very early days).
The first is Casnewydd Islwyn (Newport and some of south Caerphilly borough).
I am told it is looking as if two scenarios are likely in terms of seats, either:
Reform 3, Plaid 2, Labour 1
or
Reform 3, Plaid 3
In Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni (basically Caerphilly and Blaenau Gwent), early indications are that Plaid are ahead:
Plaid 3, Reform 2, Labour 1
To be clear, THIS IS NOT CONFIRMED. These are just reports I am getting from sources on the ground. This also doesn’t include postal votes which could change things.
However, if this is close to accurate, what early indications can we take from this?
This is one of the parts of Wales where Reform are forecast to do best. If Plaid are matching them here it could be positive for them elsewhere.
This is almost exactly following the YouGov polling we saw earlier this week.
If (and this is a big if) Labour didn’t win a seat in Newport, it would be a catastrophe. It would suggest they got under 12% of the vote in a seat where they achieved around 46%(ish) last time.
Listening to BBC Wales,lots of pundits discussing Labour. Nobody is asking the Labour reps why on earth have they implemented a system, against expert advice, that is not only allowing them to be wiped out and giving Reform seats they would never win in a named candidate ballot.
Labour's future looks pretty bleak if Mike Hedge's bafflement about why Labour are unpopular is typical of other Labour members