Plaid’s plan for Wales
Scrutinising Plaid Cymru’s manifesto
Plaid Cymru have launched their manifesto in Wrexham.
The latest YouGov poll suggests they could win 43 seats in the Senedd, which would make them the overwhelming favourite to lead the next Welsh Government. That means this document really matters.
We have gone through the manifesto which is a chunky 73 pages. For context Labour’s was 66 pages, Greens 43, Reform 36 and the Tories 30.
Let’s break it down…
Vibe and message
The most important detail of a manifesto is…well… the details.
However, you can also glean a lot from a party’s broader messaging. Who are they targeting? Where are they positioning themselves?
If there was one thing that Plaid clearly wanted people to take from this manifesto, it was: ‘This election is really serious and we are taking it seriously.’ Their message is that it is a choice between two futures for Wales - one led by Plaid or one led by Reform.
One of the first lines in the whole document reads:
“Plaid Cymru is ready to lead, and to seize the nation-building opportunity before us”.
That phrase “nation-building” is key. Plaid are trying to put forward the message that they are not here to just govern Wales: they are here to build it.
There is also a sustained attempt to try and appeal to voters outside of their traditional base. The manifesto launch event was opened by Plaid candidate for Fflint Wrecsam Marc Jones, who said it was important that the launch was being held in the north Wales city, “not in our heartlands”, “next to the border” and “out of our comfort zone.”
Plaid figures were keen to stress that this was not merely a manifesto, it was a “programme for government”. So what is on the agenda? Let’s find out. (You can read the entire manifesto for yourself here)
Fundamental changes to how Wales is funded and governed
Throughout the manifesto, Plaid talk about how they will be demanding changes to how devolution is currently set up. It’s hard to overstate how much it features across its 73 pages.
Here are just some of the examples:
“We will fight for the rail funding we are owed and that we need to invest in Welsh rail – including £4bn in consequential funding from HS2 – and for rail to be devolved.”
“Press the UK Government to devolve powers to introduce a Vacant Land Tax and to set made-in-Wales income tax bands.
“In government, Plaid Cymru will use its mandate to make securing the devolution of the Crown Estate a key priority, opening negotiations with the UK Government from day one.”
“We will pilot a £10 weekly payment to up to 15,000 children aged 0-6 in low-income households, and build the case for devolving the powers we need to roll the payment out in full, Wales-wide.”
“We will fight for the powers we need to build a justice system that works for Wales.”
“Continue to make the case that the UK should urgently seek to rejoin both the single market and customs union.”
“Press the UK Government to make Carer’s Allowance fairer, and provide targeted support for unpaid carers to claim all the benefits they are currently entitled to.”
“We will continue to call on the UK Government to extend its Rural Fuel Duty Relief Scheme to Wales.”
[Restoring coal tips] “We will continue to insist that the UK Government funds this work properly and in full.”
[On devolving benefits] “A Plaid Cymru government will press the UK Government to deliver on this”
To be clear, these are just some of the examples. Anyone who has read this newsletter knows that the arguments for changing how Wales is funded are very strong. However, given how intrinsic these concessions are in the Plaid manifesto, it’s fair to ask what happens if the UK Government outright refuses all these claims?
After his speech on Thursday I sat down with Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth and asked him this very question.
Will Hayward: “So there are a lot of asks of the UK Government in here. If we get to the end of the four years and they have said ‘no’ to everything, how has that impacted your ability to deliver the stuff in this manifesto?”
Rhun ap Iorwerth: “So that stands separately. What’s in this manifesto is based on what we have for the coming year and what can reasonably [be] expected to be in the pot for the following years. Making the case for fair funding would be an addition to this. So it’s not predicated on getting more funding. This is within current and expected envelopes.”
WH: “It does say that ‘central to your plan for energy is the devolution of the Crown Estate’. Does that not mean that all of the energy stuff in there is predicated on devolving the Crown Estate?”
RaI: “No, I think there are a couple of things there. With the Crown Estate, I make the case time and time again, it’s not just about bringing to Wales the funding that currently goes to the Treasury. It’s about unlocking potential. Given the powers of the Crown Estate in Wales, we believe we could do more with our natural resources. What we will have to do in the current situation is work with the undevolved Crown Estate to try to get as much out of it as possible.”
Changes to elections in Wales
Plaid are committing to introducing Single Transferable Vote (STV) for future Senedd elections. If they do this, it will all but guarantee a left of centre government in Wales for years to come.
Health
It is impossible to break down every single policy that Plaid mentioned in their manifesto. The health section alone is almost 3,000 words. However, we can bring you some of the key points and dig into how credible they are.
Central to Plaid’s health plans are:
A pledge to cut waiting lists by creating 10 new surgical hubs to speed up treatment times for procedures like hip and knee replacements, hernia operations and cataract removals
Increase the number of beds on Welsh hospital wards in a bid to tackle corridor care
Close the gap between health and social care by requiring stronger collaboration and developing national guidelines on social care
Supporting unpaid carers by providing targeted support and pressing Westminster to make carer’s allowance fairer
Create a new Minister for Public Health with responsibility for promoting people’s physical and mental health and well-being
Improve access to dentistry on the NHS by re-examining the contract for NHS dentistry and introducing a new duty for health boards to assess local dentistry needs and take steps to secure and maintain staffing levels
I know what you are thinking - these are pretty broad aims. Where is the detail? Well there was one health target in the manifesto that really stood out to me, and it was around GPs. They said:
“Over the past decade, while money has been put into our hospitals, it has been taken out of our GP surgeries. And this has contributed to a decline in the number of GPs working in Wales. We will take immediate steps to reverse these trends, with the aim of restoring Wales to the OECD average of 1.08 GPs per 1,000 people.”
That line about restoring Wales to the OECD average of 1.08 GPs per 1,000 can be easily overlooked because it’s quite stats-y. But it is a bloody massive commitment.
For context, Wales has about 1,600 full-time equivalent (FTE) fully-qualified GPs. This is about 0.51 per 1,000 people. So Plaid are essentially promising to double the number of GPs!
Even if you don’t count FTE GPs and simply use a head count, the figure is 0.87 GPs per 1000 people and Wales would need around 600 additional GPs to meet the OECD average.
Whichever counting method you use, this is a massive commitment.
But this begs the question of why is it buried deep in a manifesto instead of being emblazoned on every billboard and election leaflet they can get their hands on? It is a big deal.
During my interview with Rhun ap Iorwerth I asked him about this.
WH: “You state that the aim is to restore Wales to the OECD average of 1.08 GPs per 1,000 people. How long into the term would it take to get to that number of GPs per person?
RaI: “So we’ve set a figure of 100 GPs now, in order to shift that resource onto primary care, which is part of the wider agenda.”
WH: “Would that be a change that would meet the OECD average?”
RaI: “Good question. I’ll get back to you on that.”
WH: “Would we expect to hit that target in this Parliament?”
RaI: “That target, when we look at the workforce plan that we want to do, is moving us towards that target, yes.”
Hmm, ok. Not a lot of detail.
After the interview I sought clarification. I was told that by Plaid’s estimation reaching the OECD average would require around 500 extra GPs and that this was a “medium-term commitment” that would seemingly build on the 100 extra they were planning in this parliament.
Changes to funding?
One key thing I wanted to ask Mr ap Iorwerth about was this party’s pledge to review and reform GP funding. The current system of funding is fundamentally flawed. In some instances it is still based on information collected in the 1990s and has not changed in decades. We wrote a special report on this here.
The way the formula currently works means GPs in poor areas of Wales are worse off than those in rich areas. This is baked into the system but has never been changed.
WH: “By 2030 will that same formula be in place? I am talking about the one that takes money out of the poorest areas and has been in place for 20 years.”
RaI: “I know in my own constituency and throughout Wales, that there’s a problem. It’s the inverse care law. The areas, not just the people, but the areas that need healthcare most, are the ones that suffer most. Addressing that will be a core principle of any attitude from a Plaid Cymru government towards health.”
The longest waiting lists
On the longest waiting lists (over two years of waiting), of which there are about 5,000 at present, Mr ap Iorwerth said they will hopefully be gone “within months” and to “judge us on that after a year.”
Where will the savings come from?
While I waited my turn to speak to Mr ap Iorwerth, I could hear several other journos ask him to explain the costings for the manifesto. Each time, he would say that “no party would be able to go through line-by-line costings for a manifesto”.
Now, part of me thought “that’s fair”. The costings for a £27bn budget would be huge.
However, it is perfectly reasonable to ask how different budgets will change as a percentage of the overall budget. That is about prioritisation.
WH: Which Welsh Government departmental budgets will be, as a percentage of the total budget, larger at the end of four years of Plaid Cymru leadership and which will be smaller?
RaI: “There are some that we’ve made very clear would be larger. Culture, for example, starts from an incredibly low base. We’ve also talked about needing to win two terms in order for us to get anywhere near where we want in terms of culture spend. So that will increase. When we look at the proportion spent on childcare, that will go up, because we’ve identified it as an issue of real priority.”
WH: So what would be smaller?
RaI: “I would say that reactive spend on poverty, with a shift that would allow a more proactive spend on poverty. We are looking at the Bevan Foundation and their conclusions around the kind of sticking plaster solutions that are too often put in place to deal with the problems of child poverty, rather than solutions that deal with the issue in the first place. So hopefully we get to a place where that reactive spend becomes less because we’ve spent well on the proactive.”
WH: Would you still expect the health budget to occupy the same amount of the overall budget?
RaI: “To be honest with you, yes, but what we can’t do is continue to increase it at the rate at which it’s been increasing. We had to make the decision looking at the budget for 2026/27 in order to put both local government and health boards on the most firm foundation as possible. We have committed to inject another £180 million in and we’re looking in the first year at putting in another £100m plus for bringing waiting times down, plus another £40 million of capital funding on the surgical hubs. But we can’t be doing that for the long term, we can’t afford to do it. So that’s why preventative long term sustainability is at the core of our NHS message.”
When looking at Plaid’s plans, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said:
“As it stands, the outlook for Welsh Government funding implies that cuts to at least some services will be needed to maintain, let alone improve, health and social care services as costs and demands grow.
“Spending £400 million a year more on childcare, with more to boot on a Welsh child payment, expanded free school meals and better primary healthcare would require either deeper cuts to unprotected services, a substantial slowdown in core health and social care spending, or as-yet unmentioned tax rises.”
Cost of living & families
There is a lot in this manifesto promising support to struggling families to deal with the cost of living and Wales’ high rates of poverty.
Broadly, these are:
Creating a new system of universal childcare. This really is the biggest offer Plaid are making and the one they are most excited about. We have discussed this at length previously.
Piloting a new Welsh Child Payment. This would see families in receipt of Universal Credit being paid £10 per child aged 0 to six years old per week. They suggest this would be delivered initially in a limited number of local authority areas to form an evidence base for a Wales-wide rollout.
Expanding free school meals provision to secondary schools. They’ve promised all students in Years 7 to 11 from households claiming Universal Credit are able to claim a free school meal, with no income limit. This matches a recently-announced policy in England, a proposal by Welsh Labour, and the Green Party. But it stops short of expanding free school meals to all secondary pupils, which is something Plaid have previously advocated.
Implement “fair rent-setting”. Plaid pledged to create a form of rent control – but stopped short of using those precise words. The party wants to implement what it is calling “fair rent-setting” which means limiting annual rent increases to the lower end of wage growth, consumer price index inflation, or another equivalent benchmark. The party would also seek to end “no fault” evictions and give renters the legal right to request a pet.
Economy
On the economy, Plaid have proposed establishing a new business-led National Development Agency for Wales to “help Welsh businesses secure investment, trade, and innovate”.
They are seriously relying on this agency to be a large engine for growth. Over the last six months many questions asked of them on the economy have been answered by pointing to this new body.
There is also a commitment to increase the level of spending on procuring goods and services from Wales-based suppliers from the current 55% to at least 70%, with the aim of keeping money in Wales.
The diaspora
One really interesting nugget in the manifesto was a plan to take full advantage of the Welsh diaspora. There are an estimated 3–4 million Welsh people living outside Wales, and Plaid want to utilise this in a similar way to how Ireland has done.
They said:
“This diaspora is an asset – a source of creativity, skills, and investment. With strong leadership from a Plaid Cymru government, the worldwide Welsh community’s expertise, experience, and willingness to invest can be harnessed to drive innovation and growth in Wales.”
What about the M4 and Menai Bridge?
Two of the big challenges for transportation and businesses in Wales are around the Brynglas Tunnels in Newport and the lack of a third crossing on the Menai Strait.
The only reference to these two issues in the manifesto is the line:
“We are clear about the pressing need to renew the process of developing solutions to improve the resilience of transport links across the Menai Strait and address congestion on the M4 around Newport.”
When asked why there was so little on this in the manifesto the Plaid leader blamed Labour for “not having any plans on the table”. This is a bit frustrating because it’s not like these are little-known issues; Plaid could be coming into government with plans ready to put on the table. The lack of anything concrete will be frustrating for many.
However, I suspect that the reason for the lack of plans (apart from the fact that any plan will be contentious) is that they are waiting to see if they can get meaningful concessions from Westminster. The devolution of areas like rail would see serious cash coming to Wales. Plus, changes to borrowing capacity would also really shift the possibilities for these big infrastructure projects.
Environment
This is, in my opinion, the weakest part of Plaid’s manifesto. They make nods towards taking “bold new steps to address the overlapping climate and nature emergencies” and there are commitments to achieve greater energy independence for Wales by generating more through renewables.
But there are two real shortcomings:
There is a failure to acknowledge that a reduction in livestock in Wales will be necessary in order to reach Net Zero. This isn’t just about decarbonisation and nature restoration but also improving the lives of Wales’ upland farmers, who are currently trapped in a highly unprofitable industry. We will go into this in more detail in an upcoming newsletter on farming.
The hostility to building large pylons to improve Wales grid capacity really does risk limiting the potential of our renewable industry. The manifesto commits to “immediately prohibit the use of large steel lattice pylons for new 11-132 kV lines in Wales, with a clear presumption in favour of undergrounding” and that pylons would “only be permitted only where installation is via low wooden poles or equivalent, less intrusive infrastructure.”
We asked Mr ap Iorwerth about farming and decarbonising.
WH: “Your 2040 Net Zero target is under 14 years away. In all likelihood, our biggest emitting industry then will be farming. How much will farming have decarbonised by then?”
RaI: “Ok, so farming knows that it is part of the environmental answer to Wales. We need to make the assessments across every single sector, including agriculture, water and heavy industry to make sure that we’re able to reach that Net Zero. That is the work that we do, knowing that the reason we’ve gone from 2035 to 2040 is that not enough work has been done by the current governments.”
WH: “How will farming be different in 2040 compared to what it is now in Wales?”
RaI: “By better understanding how we can farm in a more environmentally positive way. The right tree in the right place, for example, is a part of the answer. But it’s about getting that balance between producing enough food and producing that food in as environmentally friendly a way as possible.
“Now, I don’t subscribe to the [idea that] you’ve got to just drastically, without question, reduce livestock numbers. I think there’s a broader way of looking at the contribution of agriculture to meeting our environmental targets than that.”
Plaid have clearly made the calculation that they cannot afford to piss off farmers. They are battling with the Tories and Reform for those voters and don’t want to say anything that might put the rural vote at risk. The problem is the can has been kicked down the road so many times now when it comes to the environment that we are running out of road. If Plaid are serious about their environmental targets, difficult conversations are going to have to happen if they win in May.
Education
Addressing the problems within our education system in Wales is going to be a key task for the next Welsh Government. Wales is the worst–performing UK nation when it comes to education, especially around basic literacy and numeracy skills.
Again, the section on education was 3,000+ words so I do advise you read it yourself if you want more detail.
Aside from expanding free school meals Plaid say they will:
Establish new national and school-level literacy and numeracy targets.
Commission a national school building conditions survey.
“Provide clarity on what children need to learn and when”.
“Set out core, evidence-based criteria for teaching literacy and numeracy, with all children taught to read using systematic synthetic phonics”.
A library space in every primary school.
Ensure that best practice in addressing poor behaviour and absenteeism is shared more consistently between schools.
Lots of these are perfectly reasonable aims, but the situation in Wales’ schools is dire and a huge part of that is they simply do not have enough money and, especially in Welsh secondary schools, can’t find the staff.
Of course, “more money” is always people’s go-to answer. But in the case of Welsh schools, they are desperate for cash. There are schools using teaching assistants as teachers to cover budget deficits. Without a real injection of funds, no amount of targets will fix these issues. And this is all before the challenges of the new curriculum fully hit home.
Welsh independence
As you would imagine, the issue of Welsh independence received a lot of attention from journalists at the manifesto launch.
There was a section in the manifesto on Welsh indy where they said: “Our nation is on a journey to independence, and we will work in partnership with the people of Wales to set out what the next steps on that journey can look like.”
Plaid say they will establish a new National Commission for Wales, responsible for, among other things:
Laying the foundations for a future White Paper on Welsh independence – addressing the challenges and setting out the opportunities and positive changes independence would bring for Wales.
They also said:
We fundamentally believe that the decision on Wales’s political and constitutional future belongs to the people of Wales. We will therefore formally request that the right to decide on the timeline, question and process for an independence referendum be devolved.
If you want to better understand Welsh independence as an issue and the challenges of it, there is a very good book you can read…
That is all for now. We will see you again on Sunday.
Take care
Will
Have Plaid sorted out the ‘misogyny’ identified in the 2023 Evans report?
Manifesto appears to confirm the continued pursuit of ‘gender self-i.d’ despite Sturgeon/SNP/ Supreme Court judgement?
Thanks Will and team.
Hope not hate is increasingly being pushed and I believe that Plaid Cymru are the party of hope.
The Conservative and New Conservatives AKA Reform (coming in and out through that revolving door) are promising anything and everything they think will win them votes regardless of cost. They have destroyed the UK over the last 15 years although the rot started in 1979. After their Brexit and the trade deals giving New Zealand and Australia unlimited access to Welsh meat markets what farmer can seriously think of voting for them.
I also can't accept that Cymru or any country should be without an airport. The Tories, ReformUK and The Green Party will all close Cardiff airport in support of the horrible Bristol airport or Climate Change.