Inside Welsh Labour’s manifesto
We took a look at what they are offering
Hello and welcome to all the new subscribers who have come on board following our special report on Reform’s candidates at the weekend.
Today was very busy with Welsh Labour launching their manifesto and Plaid launching their campaign. This bonus newsletter will look at the Labour manifesto launch with the Plaid stuff coming later this week.
Inside Welsh Labour’s manifesto
At Welsh Labour’s manifesto launch inside the Swansea Arena First Minister Eluned Morgan told the assembled audience that “this was a start of a new chapter”.
“Let’s turn the page with a new generation of Labour politicians and let’s open that new chapter for Wales - together.”
A “new chapter” implies you are still reading the same book but have just turned the page. But in reality the First Minister is not asking the people of Wales to turn the page, she is appealing to them to commission a sequel.
There was a lot to be learned from what was said (and not said) at the event. This newsletter was in attendance and has gone through the Labour manifesto with a fine tooth comb to pull out the good, the bad, and the unfunded.
Don’t they realise that this is an emergency?
The First Minister was introduced by Welsh Labour’s deputy leader Huw Irranca-Davies. Mr Irranca-Davies is a strong speaker. As he gave his speech I couldn’t help but think that we were likely watching the next Welsh Labour leader. The polls suggest that Eluned Morgan will likely lose her seat. As deputy, he will be in a strong position to take over.
His opening words gave a flavour of how Labour were going to try and differentiate themselves from what has come before.
“We held the line,” he said. “Austerity. Brexit. Covid. We protected what mattered. Free prescriptions. Free hospital parking. Free school breakfasts.” He then said “protection was for then” and that Labour “must move swiftly” from protecting to developing Wales.
It was clear from the messaging today that Labour’s strategy for the next six weeks is going to be saying that it was them who protected Wales from the Tories, and now things will be different. It is time to thrive.
But this is where I think Labour are in trouble because when you really interrogate what they are offering there is nothing that you can say is a big change from what has gone before. Nowhere was this demonstrated more than in this part of Eluned Morgan’s speech:
But I think we’ve got to be honest about where people are.
You’ve all heard it on the doorstep.
People like the new school in their community.
They love the free bus pass.
And they can’t believe free hospital parking and free prescriptions don’t happen in England.
And yet, underneath it all, there’s a feeling that something isn’t quite right.
They feel that they’re not getting a fair shake of the dice.
People aren’t asking for perfection.
But what they do want is a little more certainty.
A little more stability.
A little less dread about the next bill or the next news story.
I am sorry but “a little less dread” is like offering someone a bottle of water when their house is on fire. People in Wales across the political spectrum have woken up to the fact that the current situation is a scandal and an emergency. I have read this manifesto cover to cover and there was nothing that matched the reality of what is actually going on.
Schools, hospitals, housing, poverty, and the environment are all in a state that is way beyond unacceptable (there is a very good book on this here).
Yet reading the manifesto, you can’t help but feel that Labour are bringing a stick of celery to a knife fight. I am not saying there are not some good ideas in there. There are. But they don’t feel like they match the challenges that we face.
To be clear, I am also not saying that other parties have a much better or costed offer either. But it shouldn’t be too much to ask for real ambition.
Let’s take a look at some of the key parts of the manifesto (you can read the full document here):
Plans to have plans?
Each policy area had two parts to it:
We have.
We will.
In the “We have” section Labour broke down what they saw as their key achievements. In the “We will” section they outlined their plans for the future. I will just be focussing on the “we will” part of the equation.
The top promise in the economy section was to:
“Publish a new Industrial Strategy for Wales in our first year, focused on the huge opportunities in clean energy, advanced manufacturing, the creative industries, the digital economy and life sciences.”
We have talked a lot about “plans to have plans” and this is one of the biggest examples I have seen in the campaign so far. “Within the first year” is a bizarrely long timeline for a party that is in power now. The next Senedd term is only four years. Is it really a selling point that the first 25% of it will be making a plan?
We also saw this in the education section where they said they would:
“Improve teacher retention by exploring targets for reducing workload so teachers can focus on excellence in teaching and learning.”
This doesn’t even feel like a plan to have a plan. It feels like a plan to look at potential plans for a plan.
After her speech I spoke to the First Minister and put this to her.
Will Hayward: You mentioned your opponents had plans to have plans. One of your targets for teaching was to improve teacher retention by “exploring targets for reducing workload”. Doesn’t that seem like a bit of a plan to have a plan?
Eluned Morgan:
“No, look, there’s more to it than that. If you look at the digital section of the manifesto, you’ll see that actually there’s some very concrete examples of how we could, for example, help to decrease the pressure on teachers through using digital technology and AI. So there are some very constructive things there. It’s not a plan about a plan. You have to cross reference within the manifesto.”
WH: Staying on that with the industrial strategy, you said, within the first year, you’ll have an industrial strategy. That will be 25% of the way through the Senedd term. That also feels a bit plan to have a plan.
EM:
“Well, don’t forget, we’re working on our current plan at the moment. So it’s not like everything will stop, but what I want to do is to build on the success of the Investment Summit, to keep up that momentum and to make sure that we’re looking at the economy of the future. It changes all the time. So clearly, you can’t stick to the same plan all the time, because the world is changing all the time as well.”
In terms of those plans the First Minister mentioned, the manifesto included quite a few points in their “digital” section. Somewhat ironically, they sounded a bit like they were written with AI:
How you feel about this likely comes down to how much faith you have in Labour to deliver this. We have heard promises before. Saying that “it will be different this time” is tricky when your tenure is measured in decades and your record is mixed. This is no better illustrated than in….
Health
The Welsh Labour Government previously had the target that, by the end of 2022, patients shouldn’t be waiting longer than a year for their first outpatient appointment. We are now in 2026 and there are still 38,000 people waiting more than a year for their first appointment.
This is why it is so hard for Labour to get voters on board with the idea that they are the people best placed to deal with the problems they have presided over.
One can’t help but sigh at the fact their second point in the “we have” section for health was:
“Delivered record-breaking reductions in long waiting times and the overall waiting list”.
For context, in January 2020 there were 460k waits on the Welsh NHS. The latest data shows that AFTER their “record breaking reductions” there are currently 757k waiting.
So what else are they offering on health?
Invest £4 billion in a Hospitals of the Future Fund to build state-of-the-art new hospitals, including replacing Wrexham Maelor Hospital and University Hospital Wales, and a major hospital development in West Wales.
Guarantee you will be seen by a member of the primary care team within 48 hours if you have a pressing primary care-related health need.
Work with Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board to restore timely access to high-quality NHS services across North Wales and support the organisation out of special measures.
None of the above bullet points are bad ideas in and of themselves. But this brings us back to them not matching the scale of the challenge. Let’s take them in turn:
This newsletter has interrogated that £4bn figure in depth already. You can read that report here. There are reasons to be sceptical that £4bn would stretch to two new hospitals, a renovation in Wrexham and clear the £1.5bn backlog. When we asked Eluned Morgan at the launch whether the figures were plucked out of the air she said:
“They are certainly not. If you look at how much we spent on the Grange Hospital, that was about £400 million. So you know, if you use that as a rule of thumb. Obviously UHW would be significantly more than that. But £4bn I think is realistic. We’ve worked out exactly where we can get the money from, so we’re very confident that we can deliver that.”
When it comes to the 48-hour guarantee it’s worth noting that this is a less ambitious target than in England where the new contract requires someone to be seen within 24 hours. Ms Morgan appeared to suggest to the BBC she was sceptical about England hitting that saying that she set a 48 hour target because “I think is realistic for Wales.”
When it came to Betsi and “supporting the organisation out of special measures”, it did seem very Groundhog Day (you can read our special report on Betsi here). We asked the FM about this:
Will Hayward: You said you would be working with Betsi to take them out of special measures. I’m pretty sure, four years ago, we had literally this conversation about that target. Why is it going to be different this time?
Eluned Morgan:
“Well, look, it is difficult. Betsi is a difficult nut to crack. You know we’ve changed the members of the board. We brought in a whole new management team. So we’ve done quite a lot to change. There is definitely some movement in terms of direction.
“So their waiting lists are coming down faster than other places. They’ve still got a long way to go, but things like opening a new orthopaedic hub in Llandudno, that kind of infrastructural investment will make a difference. I think there is still a need for a cultural shift there, and that’s actually the most difficult shift.”
WH: Any appetite for breaking up the health board?
EM:
“Not as far as I’m concerned, I think that would distract us from the front line. I clearly thought about that when I was health secretary. I thought about it and thought ‘I do not want to spend three years fighting with people on the front line’. I want them to be working with us to deliver for the public.”
Other key points
Obviously we can’t cover the entire manifesto in one newsletter but here are a few more of the standout parts:
Income tax. The manifesto commits “not to raise Welsh rates of income tax over the next Senedd term”. While this will be welcome for many people in Wales struggling with the cost of living, it is worth bearing in mind that Welsh Labour have had the ability to change income tax in Wales for 16 years and have NEVER done it. Far more likely is that the UK Government changes income tax and that would not be covered by this commitment. When we asked the FM, she would not commit to reducing the rate of Welsh income tax to offset any rise by the UK Government.
Childcare. This was a commitment to: “Phase-in funded childcare to babies aged nine months old and make childcare easier to access over the course of the next Senedd. We’ll create 20,000 new funded childcare spaces as part of our phased plan.”
A big focus on social care. It was good to see Welsh Labour dedicate an entire section to social care. We have discussed in this newsletter how our ageing population is one of the biggest challenges coming down the track and it was fitting that it was given a prominent position.
“The next chapter for devolution”. This was a whole section. While many of the aims were admirable there was a lot of politely asking, including:
Make the case for a Constitutional Reform Act to protect devolution.
Continue to call for the repeal of the UK Internal Market Act.
Continue to pursue more powers for Wales, including devolution of the Crown Estate, and youth justice and probation as a first step towards devolution of justice and policing.
Make the case for a new ‘fair share formula’ so Wales automatically receives its rightful share of UK resources in critical areas.
Refusing to kowtow to Reform. From conversations I have had with Welsh Labour, it is clear that they understand the electoral reality far better than UK Labour do. While UK Labour have tried to actively counter Reform and court right-wing voters who are never going to support them, Welsh Labour have stayed far more true to themselves. They have doubled down on the Nation of Sanctuary saying they will: “Protect Wales’ status as a Nation of Sanctuary to support those who arrive here to rebuild their lives after fleeing persecution and war”.
They also committed to keep trying to project Wales around the world by saying that they will “ensure Wales is a bold and active player on the global stage, demonstrating the best of our nation and our values to the world”.
No mention of Keir Starmer. At no point in the manifesto are the words “Keir Starmer” or “Prime Minister” mentioned.
If you want to get a flavour for how hard Welsh Labour are going on the “fairness you can feel” and “new chapter” messaging, check out this video they put out from the conference:
That’s all for today. We will be bringing you more of our interview with the First Minister in a future newsletter.
Thanks for reading
Will
Lots on digital then in the Labour manifesto, but nothing on digital sovereignty - how the Welsh Government should be moving away from dependence on predominantly USA tec and developing tec based in Wales. Large parts of Europe are moving in this direction and would greatly help digital employment in Wales, as well as avoiding software lock in, and ultimately save money.
Reads like all the ideas have run out