Bombshell polling for Wales
If this is correct we are seeing a seismic shift
Welsh politics has changed.
This latest poll from YouGov/Cardiff University looking at the next Senedd election is simultaneously a bombshell and an earthquake.
The good folks at Cardiff Uni’s Wales Governance Centre have provided some fascinating analysis to go along with it. Let’s dive in.
The headline figures
According to the polling this is what Senedd voting intention (excluding non-voters and don’t knows) looks like:
Plaid Cymru - 33%
Reform UK - 30%
Labour - 10%
Conservatives - 10%
Green - 9%
Lib Dem - 6%
Other - 3%
So what would this mean in terms of seats? Well Cardiff Uni’s Dr Jac Larner’s seat projection shows:
Plaid Cymru - 39
Reform UK - 34
Labour - 10
Conservatives - 6
Green - 4
Lib Dem - 3
The magic number under the new Senedd system is 49. You need 49 seats to get a majority. As it is highly unlikely that one party will get that alone, parties will need to work together.
With that in mind here are some key takeaways from the polling:
Plaid and Labour together have exactly 49.
Plaid alongside the Greens and Lib Dems are on 46 - three short of a majority.
Together Reform and the Tories are nine short of a majority.
Once we start getting into the realms of Plaid potentially being able to form a Government without Labour we are truly in uncharted waters.
What does this mean to Labour?
It is hard to understate how devastating this poll is for Labour. Going from the governing party who have won every election in Wales for 100 years to only having 10 seats in a 96 seat parliament is brutal. Clearly the reasons underpinning this are complex, but one can’t help but see it as an indictment of failing public services here in Wales and the inability of Keir Starmer’s UK Government to even give the veneer of respect to Cymru.
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Where are voters going?
The rather daunting looking chart below shows how people have changed in voting preference since the 2024 General Election. The left side shows where voters began and the right shows where they are looking to vote according to the poll.
The headline figures are:
The Tories have lost 41% of their vote to Reform and a small amount to the Lib Dems.
Labour have lost 41% of their vote to Plaid with 10% also going to both the Greens and Reform.
Labour, particularly those in Westminster, have got to get it into their heads that far and away their biggest threat in Wales is coming from the left. Over 50% of their 2024 voters have gone to Plaid and the Greens. Just 10% are going to Reform. Being tough on immigration is hurting, not helping them.
Plus it seems that Welsh Labour’s total inability to get any meaningful concessions from UK Labour in areas like HS2 is really hurting them. Of people switching from Labour to Plaid, 40.3% cite Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party as better at “standing up for Wales” as their primary motivation.
It is also worth bearing in mind that many people are seemingly leaving Labour because they don’t believe they can stop Reform. In their analysis the Wales Governance Centre said: “For Plaid Cymru, the contrast between Labour switchers and Plaid loyalists is stark but common themes emerge. People switching from Labour are heavily motivated by tactical considerations with 30% saying this is the primary reason for their switch.”
So you can’t just see Plaid’s spike as simply an endorsement of their policies. A sizable minority are doing it simply because they see it as the best way to stop Reform.
Young people love Plaid and hate Reform
There has been a lot of talk about Reform being really effective at reaching young people. However this polling suggests that just 5% of those aged 18 - 24 would vote for them. Plaid is miles ahead of everyone else in younger age groups. In fact in every group below age 55, Plaid are the largest party.
Other key takeaways are:
Labour only polled at 1.5% in the youngest age bracket.
The Greens do really well with under 35s but fall to around 2% with older voters.
The only age group at all interested in the Tories are people over 74
What levels of education indicate about who people will vote for
The polling also looked at respondents’ level of education.
The main takeaways here are:
Those with no qualifications were very likely to either not vote or vote for Reform.
The highest level of education were overwhelmingly most likely to vote for Plaid Cymu.
The more education you have beyond GCSEs, the less likely you are to vote Reform.
Those with no qualifications have almost no interest in voting Green.
That’s all for now. We will be back later today with our midweek round up. We are routinely putting out three or four newsletters a week because we believe this is a vital time in Welsh politics and people need to be making decisions from as informed a position as possible.
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Diolch
Will
So much will come down to the sixth seat in each constituency with a handful of votes between parties.
I wonder if Plaid’s strong performance may encourage more to give the Greens (and Lib Dem’s?) a shot?