Behind Reform's drop in the polls
Plus we go to the Welsh town where less than a third of people vote
Good morning!
Today’s newsletter is going to break down more details behind the shock polling that came out this week. We are just 109 days out from the election and when you look behind the data there are some genuinely fascinating insights that can help you understand what seems to be happening in Wales.
We will finish with some more work from our investigative journalism fund, this time visiting Torfaen.
Tomorrow you will then get a second newsletter featuring my interview with Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth. Given the latest polling there is a significant chance that he will be the next First Minister of Wales. It is therefore vital that he is challenged and questioned on how he would tackle Wales’ problems.
Before we start, I want to talk to you about Hello Starling.
Those of you who have been with me since the start will know all about Hello Starling. They are media planning and buying specialists. But what does that actually mean? Well let me give you some examples of what they do:
South Wales Fire and Rescue Service - they worked with the fire service to find new candidates for full time firefighters. This led to over 1,690 applications.
Visit Warwickshire - they ran a digital campaign for them which reached 1.9m people!
HorseWorld - They ran a campaign that led to over 20,000 new subscribers for HorseWorld’s mailing list (I wish I had as many subscribers as HorseWorld).
We are now a multi-award winning newsletter!
On Friday, Ryan and I attended the Wales Media Awards where I won Political Journalist of the Year. I was up against two superb fellow hacks and I was really honoured to win.
The reason I am able to spend my time scrutinising politicians in Wales is because you wonderful people fund me. We are now pushing up to 10,000 subscribers to this newsletter. That makes us the 39th best selling political Substack in the world! Thank you.
I also want to give a shout out to Rob Norman from HayMan Media who won Photographer of the Year. Since this newsletter began I have commissioned Rob to do several jobs. He is outstanding. Don’t believe me? Check out this pic from tomorrow’s Rhun ap Iorwerth interview.
Inside THAT poll
Last week we published the headline figures of the poll so let’s just remind ourselves of what it said in terms of voting percentage:
The key initial takeaways that grabbed headlines straight away were:
Plaid are significantly ahead of Reform (previous polls had them much closer).
The Greens have surged ahead of Welsh Labour into third place.
Labour and the Tories are hovering around that dangerous 10% threshold which, under this voting system, is seriously bad news for parties as it acts as a cliff edge.
In terms of seats this meant:
What is noteworthy here is that Plaid and the Greens together would be able to command a sizable majority. This has all sorts of ramifications, including the fact that there would be a pro Welsh independence majority inside the Senedd (we ask Rhun ap Iorwerth about this in the interview tomorrow).
So what lies beneath the headline figures. I want to make it clear that the analysis for this poll (which was conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru and Cardiff Uni) is based on the conclusions of Cardiff Uni lecturer in politics Dr Jac Larner. Jac is superb at communicating this stuff and I don’t want to give the impression that I am doing anything other than standing on his shoulders. You can follow him on Bluesky here.
Where is the Plaid and Green growth coming from?
We have discussed over the last year or so how most of Plaid’s increase was based on former Labour voters switching to Plaid Cymru. However the data now seems to suggest that, as the election nears, switching between parties has largely stopped.
Instead the increase in votes for Plaid and the Greens is now being driven by those people who had previously responded “don’t know” going over to them.
Labour had been hoping that the large number of “don’t knows” would break their way, but it seems this really isn’t happening.
Reform’s vote share is falling, but that doesn’t mean they are losing support
When pollsters publish those voting intention figures, they usually leave out those people who answer “don’t know”.
While Reform had gone down to 23% from 29% in the previous poll, this doesn’t mean that people are leaving them.
What is actually happening here is that because the number of people answering “don’t know” is declining (and few of those previous “don’t knows” are switching to Reform), the overall share of the vote Nigel Farage’s party/company are getting is declining.
One of the most interesting parts of the data is that Reform was overwhelmingly seen as being the “biggest nightmare” if they were to get into government in the Senedd.
What is really clear from the data is that Reform are nobody’s second choice - you either really want them or really don’t.
This means that, for many people, stopping Reform is more important than who actually gets in. This is where Plaid are doing really well.
57% of people see Plaid Cymru as the best way to stop Reform. This is a really powerful message for Plaid.
I have heard some people, especially around Labour, say that Plaid’s surge is all based on a desire to stop Reform. However this polling says that this isn’t entirely the case as you can see below:
This graph shows why people are voting Plaid. The green bars are people who formerly voted Plaid who are still doing so, whereas the red are former Labour voters who have switched to Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party.
The fact that 30% of former Labour voters switched to stop Reform is significant. However 40% are switching simply because they see Plaid as better at “standing up for Wales”. This shows why Welsh Labour just paying lip service to issues like HS2 has really hurt them.
How likely is this poll to be right?
That high Green Party figure has led some to question this polling. While the poll may seem an outlier, it does fit the trends we have seen in terms of Green support in England.
It is worth bearing in mind that A LOT of this Green growth is based on support among younger age groups. These are the hardest to predict and is one of the parts of the data with the least certainty.
It terms of the seat protections, Jac Larner ran 1,000 different simulations based on the data and this was how it played out:
As you can see, the range for Reform is larger. They could do much worse than 23 seats or they could do much better. It depends on whether their voters turn out.
I will finish with three points:
Plaid could end up with a majority on just 37% of the vote. Under this new “proportional” system we could end up with the least proportional Senedd ever (this system is terrible).
Nothing is certain, however we can now say with confidence that whatever happens in May, we are in for a huge change in Welsh politics.
Labour have to consolidate. I feel I have been banging this drum for months. Labour need to stop campaigning as though they have any chance of appealing to a wide range of voters and being the biggest party. They need to pick a core group who they think they can appeal to and go all out on targeting them or they risk oblivion. If they try to appeal to everyone, they will please no one.
A place in Wales where only a third of people vote
I really believe that one of the best things you can do as a journalist (and news organisation) is simply listen to people. If you ever turn up in a place already knowing the story you want to write, you are starting the process halfway through.
Giving people a damn-good-listening-to is how you improve both your understanding of issues, and that of your readers.
When aspiring young journalist and writer Josh Smith approached me through my investigative journalism fund we decided he should head to Torfaen. This area has some of the highest levels of political disengagement in Wales as well as four Reform councillors (including Dr Squeegees).
So the task was simple, pure reporting. He went to the area with a camera person, spoke to people about their issues, and then wrote about them. You can follow Josh on Linkedin here. I hope you enjoy his piece:
