Annihilation for the Tories - New polling out for Wales
A bonus newsletter
Special bonus newsletter this week.
There is some brand new polling for Wales that I wanted to share with you. The polling was conducted by More in Common for Sky News.
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Reform and Plaid still battling for 1st place
Now I should add, I haven’t got all of the data on this poll yet, so it’s tricky to do a really nuanced analysis, but what I believe there are some juicy nuggets in the headline figures.
The key points are:
Reform and Plaid are clearly the front runners at present. Back in May when that first poll came out that showed Labour in third place, several Labour members told me they thought it was an aberration. It clearly was not. Several polls are all suggesting a version of the same thing.
The Tories could be totally wiped out. Due to the electoral system, once a party starts to get towards single figures in terms of vote share, they can end up with no seats. The Welsh Conservatives, who let’s not forget are currently the official opposition in Wales, could end up with no seats in a 96 seat Senedd. Will their leader Darren Millar change course from the Reform tribute act he is currently touring with? I doubt it.
Reform will still not be able to form a government. Given the fact the Tories could be annihilated, there are few places to go for Reform when it comes to coalitions or deals. Speaking to Sky’s Beth Rigby, First Minister Eluned Morgan said she “wouldn't touch Reform with a barge pole”. Plaid has also ruled out a coalition.
How much can we take from the Reform figures? Because I haven’t seen the full poll yet I don’t know how much of this was adjusted for how likely people are to vote. In all likelihood a big turnout likely means a bigger win for Reform. I know that Reform organisers were dismayed at how many of their voters are not even registered to vote. This makes predicting harder.
Where are the Labour voters going?
Almost half (48%) of people who voted Labour in the General Election are looking to go elsewhere in the Senedd election according to this poll.
We have looked extensively in previous newsletters at how most of the Labour vote is heading to Plaid Cymru. This poll suggests that is still the case though the percentage also shifting to Reform is higher than we have previously seen (10%).
Keir Starmer is as unpopular as the Conservative Party in Wales…
The below graph shows net approval rating for political parties and their leaders.
The first thing to say is that most people in Wales probably don’t know who Darren Millar and Rhun ap Iorwerth are. I wouldn’t read too much into their ratings because the “don’t knows” are probably doing a lot of heavy lifting when it comes to favorability. I would say however that Mr ap Iorwerth is likely more recognisable than Darren Millar, in part because he was leader during the last election.
But people will know who Keir Starmer is and they almost certainly know who the Tories are. The fact that the PM is polling exactly the same as the Conservatives in Wales probably indicates the perils in pursuing a tone of governance that is very…well…conservative.
That’s it for now but you will get your usual newsletter this Sunday.
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Diolch
Will
You had mentioned earlier that Labour still hadn’t organised their candidate selection - one then wonders how well Reform is doing then. Will they be able to field enough candidates to capitalise on their polling? The Senedd should have adopted residency requirements for the next election - prevent any parachuting in.