A car crash Tory conference
I watched Jacob Rees-Mogg lose the room in one sentence
Hello,
As I write this I am sat on a Saturday afternoon in sunny Llangollen at the Welsh Conservative conference (if that doesn’t deserve a paid subscription I don’t know what does).
It was well worth the trip with some amazing gaffes and insights including my unusual exchange with Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar as well as Jacob Rees-Mogg making the women in the crowd collectively cringe.
The context for the party is bleak. A poll two weeks ago suggested that they could end up with nine seats in 2026 (though it could be as low as three). A dramatic fall from grace for the party which is currently the official opposition.
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Whales and Members of the Scottish Parliament
I have been to a lot of political conferences and they are all a bit weird. Politicians are, as a rule, not the most normal people. However I can honestly say this was one of the most bizzare. Let’s start with the gaffes.
Welsh Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch told the Welsh conference it was “wonderful to meet so many MSPs” (Member of the Scottish Parliament) while Shadow Climate Change minister Janet Finch-Saunders called out the “Conservative Labour Government” (whatever that is).
The best insights came from the auto-captions that appeared on the screens all around the conference hall as the speakers gave their orations. “Wales” was always autocorrected to “Whales” which was particularly funny when it told the audience that their policy would be “Whales wise” rather than “Wales wide”.
I almost felt sorry for Darren Millar who was corrected from “We are pro-roads not just cycle paths” to “We are pro-roads not just psychopaths”.
The young Conservatives in a sea of grey
Perhaps nothing underlines the challenges the Welsh Conservatives face than one of the fringe events that was taking place.
For the Welsh Conservatives, “young” means under 45. This is a real problem.
Analysis by Cardiff Uni’s Wales Governance Centre has found a staggering 10% of the 2019 voters for the party were no longer with us five years later (the figure for Labour was 3%). At the same time fewer than 10% of people aged under 65 in Wales voted for the Conservatives. Assuming that the voting trends continue, 40% of Tory voters will have passed away by next election.
In search of Darren Millar
Since he became leader at the end of 2024, the Welsh Tory leader has refused to conduct any interview with me. I have made well over a dozen requests but I was told that he wasn’t happy with my reporting of his second job and therefore I would not be granted access. Not the best look when it comes to scrutiny.
Ever the optimist I asked on the first day of the conference for an interview and was again told it wouldn’t happen. So I decided to stand by Mr Millar when he was being interviewed by someone else and take selfies of myself looking a bit sad in the hope that it would stir his heart.
I even managed to get former Secretary of State for Wales David TC Davies to join me in my appeal.
Upon finishing his interview I shouted to Mr Millar asking him to give me a few minutes. There was a slight pause followed by a “go on then”. Maybe the awkwardness of the situation was just too much for him or maybe he realised that refusing the interview would generate more negative attention than actually doing the thing.
I interviewed Mr Millar next to an olive tree and when it finished he, unprompted, broke off a branch and handed it to me. He then left with a “god bless Will”. Seems I am forgiven for scrutinising a politician..
But what did he say?
The Darren Millar interview
Six months ago the Welsh Conservatives ditched their electorally toxic busted-flush of a leader in Andrew RT Davies. Still a Tory MS, Mr Davies was nowhere to be seen on either day of the conference. Apparently he was at a wedding… I would be amazed if Mr Davies wasn’t standing for Reform at the next election.
Unperturbed by his predecessor's absence, Darren Millar began his speech to the conference by praising Mr Davies.
“Friends, Andrew left some big shoes to fill. But I have got some extra thick socks to make sure I fill them!
“I want to build on Andrew's legacy as we approach those important Senedd elections next year.”
From an electoral point of view this should be a concern for the Welsh Conservatives. The issues with the party under Andrew RT Davies were not just his wild social media rants. It was far deeper. It was the inability of the party to distinguish itself from the UK Conservative Party, the utter lack of a credible vision for Wales and them wilfully ignoring the fact that the electorate in Wales is to the left of that in England.
Merely pulling on some warm socks and following in Mr Davies’ footsteps is to miss how off course the party is.
I therefore asked Mr Millar what the difference was between the party under him compared to his predecessor:
“Well, we've had a change of leader, obviously that means a change of style, but we are still a Conservative Party. We stand proud with our conservative values. What we have done since December and my unanimous election by the members of the Senedd in the Conservative group, is undertake the start of a policy review.
“We're announcing some of the policies this week, and we'll introduce more announcements, obviously, as we get closer to the election.”
So what are these policies? Well one thing that they announced has been plans to cut income tax and business rates. This would add up to a shortfall of about £660m in the Welsh budget and they say they will make up this money from:
“Efficiency” savings though they would apparently be ringfencing health, education and farming (apparently there is no waste in those departments…).
“Cutting Labour’s vanity projects”.
These “vanity projects” include Cardiff Airport (which costs about £20m) and closing Welsh Government overseas offices (which costs just over £5m). Now the mathematically minded among you will have noticed that they are still £635m short. But these are not the only Welsh Labour projects in their cross hairs.
When I spoke to Darren Millar he said that he would reverse the Senedd expansion and 20mph limit. The idea that reversing 20mph policy is a cost saver is bizarre because the cost all came from the changes to the signage. Changing the signs back would cost the same again!
When I pointed this out Mr Millar said:
“It's already cost the taxpayer in excess of £30 million to introduce the default speed limits, and it's costing a further £5-8 million in order to review these roads that people are supposed to be reverting back to 30mph. And we also know that 20mph speed limits are costing the economy up to £9 million over the review period that was set out by the Welsh Labour government.”
If you think that spending money to change Wales back to 30mph as a cost saving exercise is insane, that is because it is. Also, the cost to the economy of people driving slightly slower is small compared to the huge savings to society of far fewer people getting killed and seriously injured. Not to mention the reduction in insurance premiums in Wales.
Reducing the size of the Senedd would save £18m (ish) a year in terms of having fewer staff to pay. But that isn’t going to happen until after 2030 at the next Senedd election. So how would it do anything to make up for the £660m gap in the budget now?
Plus, for the Welsh Tories to enact this policy they would need to have a large amount of MSs. If this did happen, I find it hard to imagine them voting to reduce the size of an institution they are dominating.
Also, they are still £600m short…
“Fixing education”
As anyone who has a child will know, schools in Wales are really struggling. They are absolutely starved of funds at the moment. They are having to shoulder the extra responsibility that comes when poverty rises and other youth services are cut to the bone.
Luckily the Conservatives announced three policies that will “fix Welsh education”. Let’s have a look at them and work out if they would be effective.
Pupils to be automatically excluded for carrying knives into school
Let’s start by saying that carrying a knife is already a crime and schools do impose serious consequences for students. However the head of Estyn has argued that automatic exclusions are not always helpful because it depends on the reason for carrying a knife.
He told the BBC in February: “You may have a child that has every potential for redemption but they have fallen into bad practice and we cannot exclude those people from society.”
It’s worth noting that the NASUWT teaching union has argued for immediate suspensions.
A mobile phone ban in schools – coupled with a renewed discipline drive
I am going to ignore “renewed discipline drive” because that could mean anything and just sounds like a gimmick. In terms of banning mobile phones from schools, while it might sound good there has only been one study into the issue and it found that banning phones in schools “is not linked to pupils getting higher grades or having better mental wellbeing”.
Reinstate Home Economics to the school curriculum
While it is really important that kids learn about managing finances and preparing food, it is worth noting that many schools already do this. In schools, many pupils take GCSEs and A levels in design and technology where syllabuses can include food technology and textiles technology. Financial literacy is also part of the PSE curriculum.
Let’s face it, while you can make an argument for some of these policies, the idea they will make even the smallest impact to “fix education” is laughable.
“We need to reopen the coal mines”
If you want a really clear demonstration that the Welsh Tories are never going to try to appeal to wider Wales you can look at this quote from Darren Millar in his speech. He said:
“I joined the Conservative Party when I was 15 years old.
“I was inspired to do so because of the legacy of Margaret Thatcher.
“The greatest Prime Minister of my lifetime.”
Way to win in the Valley’s Darren (please don’t take my olive branch).
However, just a few hours later their shadow climate change minister Janet Finch-Saunders would say in her speech:
“Why are we importing coal into the UK when we could be extracting it here?”
Take a second and think about how hilarious that is. A Tory MS just called for the reopening of the mines on the same day that their leader declared his love for Thatcher. I wonder if Janet knows why the mines in Wales are closed now…
This underscores how the current offering of the Welsh Conservatives simply isn't credible. They are floundering around desperately saying anything that feels right. Their policies barely exist and where they do they are wildly uncosted and counter-intuitive.
Elon Musk's money makes its way to Wales
While at the conference I noticed two people walking around. They were not Tories and I recognised one as a woman who had previously worked for Reform.
I chatted to them and it became clear that they were from an organisation called GB Pac. This is a group who aim to unite the right in the UK. She told me that they are very well resourced and can help parties on the right of politics develop policies.
When I asked her where the funding was coming from for this she was initially cagey but then admitted that most was coming from Elon Musk. I witnessed Tory MSs talking with this pair.
It is very concerning for the health of Welsh democracy and political discourse that foreign money is bankrolling elements of our politics to push them in a more extreme direction. Wales is a small and poor country. It doesn’t take a lot of cash to start to move the needle.
The moment Jacob Rees-Mogg made a woman viably retch and the lie Welsh Labour need to stop telling
The keynote speaker at the conference on the first day was renowned hater of the metric system Jacob Rees-Mogg.
His speech was a rightwing, populist game of bingo read in the style of a Victorian magistrate.
“Why did we lose?” he began. “Because we went along with the climate change nonsense”.
He said that in order to get back on track the UK needed to scrap:
The Climate Change Act
The Equality Act
The Human Rights Act.
What a man.
Perhaps the most nauseating part was when he started talking about Keir Starmer taking donations. I recorded it. You can listen here:
He said:
“Let me just speak to the gentlemen in the room for a moment or two, so ladies, you can block your ears.
“It seems to be very odd that he was happy for another man to be buying his wife dresses.
“I have discussed this with Helena and I said to her ‘you know, I think if some nice chap were buying you dresses I would wonder what you were up to’.
“It’s my job to look after my wife's necessities rather than some party donor.”
The idea that a man needs to provide his wife’s “necessities” tells you all you need to know about his world view.
The room was divided on his statements. Some of the older women in the audience were absolutely hooting with laughter at what was apparently a very witty quip while I saw one woman younger than me actually retch at the blatant sexism of it all.
If you are too traditional for members of the Welsh Conservatives, you have gone FAR too far.
Simply not true
I want to finish with something that has been annoying me.
Last week we discussed the astounding YouGov poll which put Labour in third place. A few Labour people who have spoken to myself and others have said that YouGov polls often overestimate Plaid. I understand why they want to make this point but it’s just not true.
Prior to 2024 YouGov understated Plaid Cymru and then close to the election got it exactly right.
Back in 2021 they did overestimate Plaid but only by 1.5%, which is a very small amount.
While the desire of Labour MSs to reach for a crumb of comfort is understandable, a far better use of their energy would be to accept this poll as the dire warning it is and change course.
That’s all for this week. Thank you so much for your support. It takes time and money to go to these conferences and I really couldn’t do it without your help.
Thank you so much. Please do share to keep this newsletter growing.
Take care
Will
Credit where it’s due, handing you a literal olive branch is a good gag.
It’s true they don’t have any significant viable policies. But neither do any of the other parties really - it’s hard to think of a single policy from any Welsh political party that would make a significant different to Wales (other than a few from Reform, the Tories and the Greens that would bankrupt the Government). It seems to me that this is because they are all committed to either populism (say whatever you think people want to hear rather than anything actually viable) or managerialism (make technical changes that may marginally improve things) rather than having an any kind of political vision driven by coherent a political philosophy.